@article{MTMT:34649067, title = {Bound by ancestors. Immigration, credit frictions, and global supply chain formation}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34649067}, author = {Choi, Jaerim and Hyun, Jay and Park, Ziho}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103855}, journal-iso = {J INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {147}, unique-id = {34649067}, issn = {0022-1996}, keywords = {IMMIGRATION; Network formation; Trade credit; global value chain; Global supply chain; Social ties; Credit constraints; Co-ethnic networks}, year = {2024}, eissn = {1873-0353}, orcid-numbers = {Hyun, Jay/0000-0003-1667-730X} } @article{MTMT:34649066, title = {International input-output linkages and changing business cycle volatility}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34649066}, author = {Miyamoto, Wataru and Nguyen, Thuy Lan}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2023.103869}, journal-iso = {J INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {147}, unique-id = {34649066}, issn = {0022-1996}, keywords = {DECOMPOSITION; Input-output; trade linkages; International business cycles; volatilities}, year = {2024}, eissn = {1873-0353} } @article{MTMT:34591357, title = {Can outward FDI promote export diversification for emerging economies? Firm-level evidence from China}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34591357}, author = {Zhang, Song and Chen, Chunlai and Li, Haoze}, doi = {10.1016/j.strueco.2023.10.009}, journal-iso = {STRUCT CHANGE ECON DYNAM}, journal = {STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS}, volume = {68}, unique-id = {34591357}, issn = {0954-349X}, abstract = {Recent studies have highlighted the importance of export diversification in facilitating emerging economies' structural change and economic development. This study aims at investigating whether outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) can promote export diversification. Using a firm-product-level dataset, this study investigates empirically the impact of China's OFDI conducted by exporting firms on their export diversification both at product-level and destination-level. By employing propensity score matching (PSM) techniques and differences-in-differences (DID) analysis, this study finds that China's OFDI has a positive and statistically significant impact on promoting China's diversification of export basket, and the promotion effects vary upon different motivations of OFDI. A dynamic effect test shows that the promotion effects of OFDI are significant for several consecutive years after outward investment was made. In addition, this study also finds that the promotion effects mainly come from optimised organisational structure and improved business performance of the OFDI firms.}, keywords = {TRADE; Emerging economies; Export diversification; Outward foreign direct investment}, year = {2024}, eissn = {1873-6017}, pages = {269-280} } @article{MTMT:33950652, title = {Risk sharing channels in OECD countries: A heterogeneous panel VAR approach}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950652}, author = {Asdrubali, Pierfederico and Kim, Soyoung and Pericoli, Filippo Maria and Poncela, Pilar}, doi = {10.1016/j.jimonfin.2023.102804}, journal-iso = {J INT MONEY FINANC}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL MONEY AND FINANCE}, volume = {131}, unique-id = {33950652}, issn = {0261-5606}, abstract = {We aim to improve upon the existing empirical literature on international risk sharing channels under three dimensions. First, we generalize dynamic multi-equation approaches, by adopting a Heterogeneous Panel VAR model where the coefficients are allowed to vary across countries. Second, we introduce two new risk sharing channels - government con-sumption and the real exchange rate - to investigate the role of fiscal policy and interna-tional price adjustments. Third, we establish a better link between the "channels" empirical model and a theoretical formulation of the risk sharing condition, which allows for PPP violations. Our empirical analysis, for 21 OECD countries over 1960-2018, confirms the strong smoothing role played by credit markets and the small degree of risk sharing achieved through factor incomes. Interestingly, government consumption tends to have a dis-smoothing effect, due to its counter-cyclicality. The real exchange rate is driven by the dis-smoothing role played by the nominal exchange rate, only partially offset by relative price adjustments. The evolution of these mechanisms is diverse, but we document the role played by the deterioration of credit market smoothing for the long-run decline in risk shar-ing started at the beginning of the century. However, the annihilation of total risk sharing at the start of the century reflects mostly the nominal exchange rate effect. Our results are strikingly different across countries, especially if we take into account the (dis-) smoothing effects occurring through the real exchange rate. Even considering only traditional risk shar-ing channels, the country-specific magnitude of risk sharing on impact ranges from around 10% to over 50%. In addition, dynamics are also quite diverse across countries.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).}, keywords = {Exchange rates; Risk sharing; Consumption smoothing; government consumption}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1873-0639} } @article{MTMT:34341015, title = {Foreign Supply Shocks and the Structure of Trade in a Small Open Economy}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34341015}, author = {Boschemeier, Jonas and Mau, Karsten}, doi = {10.1007/s10645-023-09425}, journal-iso = {ECONOMIST-NETHERLAND}, journal = {ECONOMIST-NETHERLANDS}, volume = {171}, unique-id = {34341015}, issn = {0013-063X}, abstract = {We evaluate how imports of a small open economy adjusted to foreign supply disruptions in the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exploiting information on the timing, stringency, and persistence of coronavirus containment measures, we estimate their impact on the value and composition of imports. About half of the total contraction is attributed to foreign supply-sided disruptions. Contractions were more pronounced in concentrated import markets, but more severe contractions were prevented by trade partner substitution. We document systematic reallocation of market shares towards countries with large supply capacity and low COVID-19 incidence rates in the second half of 2020.}, keywords = {international trade; F14; COVID-19 pandemic; Supply-side disruptions; Trade partner substitution}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1572-9982}, pages = {303-342} } @article{MTMT:33950648, title = {Technological sovereignty and priorities of localization of production}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950648}, author = {Dementiev, Victor E.}, doi = {10.18522/2073-6606-2023-21-1-6-18}, journal-iso = {TERRA ECONOMICUS}, journal = {TERRA ECONOMICUS}, volume = {21}, unique-id = {33950648}, issn = {2073-6606}, abstract = {The current trend of global development is the strengthening of economic and geopolitical influence of countries that control transnational digital infrastructure. The claims of the United States and China to dominate the global economy are a challenge not only for Russia, but also for other countries that are not devoid of ambitions. Achieving digital sovereignty figures is among the goals of the European Union. India is striving to overcome digital colonization, the technological hegemony of the West and China. The article presents how the European Union and India move towards technological sovereignty. Since this sovereignty differs from autarky, it is an urgent task to develop a policy of participation in global value chains. Findings provided by METRO model (an OECD tool for analyzing global markets) focus on a broad diversification of foreign economic relations. The results of the shock test of the countries by the COVID-19 pandemic show that, although the countries with the largest income per capita are characterized by a high level of foreign trade activity, it is not a guarantee of sustainable economic development. National economy can be strongly negatively affected by supply chain disruptions. To resist foreign pressure, Russia needs to control a number of macro technologies that will dominate in the XXI century. Such general-purpose technology as artificial intelligence is beginning to play a significant role at that.}, keywords = {Artificial intelligence; digital sovereignty; technological sovereignty; localization of production; turbulence of economic development; macrotechnologies}, year = {2023}, eissn = {2410-4531}, pages = {6-18} } @article{MTMT:33950655, title = {Anti-dumping Policies and International Portfolio Allocation: The View from Global Funds}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950655}, author = {Ding, Haoyuan and Li, Xiao and Ying, Jiezhou}, doi = {10.1111/cwe.12474}, journal-iso = {CHINA WORLD ECON}, journal = {CHINA & WORLD ECONOMY}, volume = {31}, unique-id = {33950655}, issn = {1671-2234}, abstract = {Anti-dumping policies, as one of the most important nontariff measures to protect a country's economic interests, can have an impact not only on a country's trade and social welfare, but also on capital flows. Anti-dumping measures can result in increased trade costs and alterations to exchange rate risk. This study investigates the impact of anti-dumping sanctions on the international portfolio allocations of global funds. Antidumping policies can decrease the proportion of a fund's investment portfolio allocated to recently-sanctioned countries. Closer trade ties between the sanctioned country and the country where a fund is domiciled exacerbate the divestiture, but stronger foreign direct investment links weaken the negative association. Some country and fund heterogeneities are also discussed. We find that more developed countries are less affected by the impact of anti-dumping measures on equity fund allocations; liberalization of the economy and stable government could also mitigate the negative impact of anti-dumping sanctions. High-risk funds, such as growth funds or funds that invest in leveraged buyouts, showed the greatest response to changes in anti-dumping regulations.}, keywords = {Foreign direct investment; TRADE; anti-dumping policy; international capital allocation}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1749-124X}, pages = {58-83} } @article{MTMT:33950653, title = {Direct and spillover portfolio effects of COVID-19}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950653}, author = {Ding, Haoyuan and Pu, Bo and Ying, Jiezhou}, doi = {10.1016/j.ribaf.2023.101932}, journal-iso = {RES INT BUSINESS FINANCE}, journal = {RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE}, volume = {65}, unique-id = {33950653}, issn = {0275-5319}, abstract = {This paper investigates the direct and spillover portfolio effects from the global outbreak of COVID-19. We find that an increase of the newly added cases of one specific country causes in-vestors to significantly decrease their portfolio allocations in the outbreak countries (direct ef-fect). Simultaneously, investors also decrease their allocations to other countries (spillover effect). In addition, we provide evidence and documentation that the transmission mechanism underlying foreign exposures matter to the above-mentioned portfolio effect. Moreover, we provide evidence for phase heterogeneity. The first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic has significant direct and spillover portfolio effects, but the impacts are weakened in second wave of the pandemic. The capital reallocation effect occurs only when the disease becomes global. Finally, our heteroge-neities analysis shows that both local and spillover effects are mitigated when the economies are more developed and democratic and when the country has better health care facilities.}, keywords = {Spillover effect; COVID-19; International capital flow; Foreign exposure}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1878-3384} } @article{MTMT:34649069, title = {The impact of the Brexit referendum on UK's value-added exports. A structural decomposition}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34649069}, author = {Feas, Enrique}, doi = {10.1016/j.eap.2023.10.007}, journal-iso = {ECON ANALYS POLICY}, journal = {ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND POLICY}, volume = {80}, unique-id = {34649069}, issn = {0313-5926}, keywords = {European Union; Global value chains; Brexit; Input-output tables; Value-added exports; Trade in Value-Added}, year = {2023}, eissn = {0313-5926}, pages = {1239-1254}, orcid-numbers = {Feas, Enrique/0000-0002-9431-6051} } @article{MTMT:33950649, title = {Effect of the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO on economic growth volatility}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950649}, author = {Gnangnon, Sena Kimm}, doi = {10.1016/j.strueco.2023.04.004}, journal-iso = {STRUCT CHANGE ECON DYNAM}, journal = {STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS}, volume = {65}, unique-id = {33950649}, issn = {0954-349X}, abstract = {This article investigates how the duration of membership in the General Agreement on Tariffs , Trade (GATT) and the World Trade Organization (WTO) affects economic growth volatility. Using an unbalanced panel dataset of 153 countries over the period 1980-2019, it has revealed that the duration of membership in the GATT/WTO reduces economic growth volatility, with this negative effect being larger in member states that have been subject to rigorous accession procedures. More importantly, the membership duration exerts a larger dampening economic growth volatility effect as countries further upgrade their export products. It also exerts a larger negative effect on economic growth volatility in countries that enjoy a greater openness to international trade. These findings complement the findings of the positive economic growth effect of the membership in the GATT/ WTO, by showing that more than the mere membership in the GATT/WTO, the duration of such membership affects economic growth volatility.}, keywords = {WTO; Duration of membership in the GATT; Economic growth volatility}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1873-6017}, pages = {448-467} } @article{MTMT:33950650, title = {Stochastic volatility modeling of high-frequency CSI 300 index and dynamic jump prediction driven by machine learning}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950650}, author = {Hui, Xianfei and Sun, Baiqing and SenGupta, Indranil and Zhou, Yan and Jiang, Hui}, doi = {10.3934/era.2023070}, journal-iso = {ELECTRON RES ARCH}, journal = {ELECTRONIC RESEARCH ARCHIVE}, volume = {31}, unique-id = {33950650}, abstract = {This paper models stochastic process of price time series of CS I 300 index in Chinese financial market, analyzes volatility characteristics of intraday high-frequency price data. In the new generalized Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard model, the lag caused by asynchrony of market information and market microstructure noises are considered, and the problem of lack of long-term dependence is solved. To speed up the valuation process, several machine learning and deep learning algorithms are used to estimate parameter and evaluate forecast results. Tracking historical jumps of different magnitudes offers promising avenues for simulating dynamic price processes and predicting future jumps. Numerical results show that the deterministic component of stochastic volatility processes would always be captured over short and longer-term windows. Research finding could be suitable for influence investors and regulators interested in predicting market dynamics based on high-frequency realized volatility.}, keywords = {High-frequency data; Jump; stochastic volatility modeling; Le?vy process; machine learning and deep learning}, year = {2023}, eissn = {2688-1594}, pages = {1365-1386} } @article{MTMT:34311526, title = {Determinants of macroeconomic resilience in the euro area: An empirical assessment of national policy levers}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34311526}, author = {Jolles, Maya and Meyermans, Eric and Vasicek, Borek}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecosys.2023.101093}, journal-iso = {ECON SYST}, journal = {ECONOMIC SYSTEMS}, volume = {47}, unique-id = {34311526}, issn = {0939-3625}, abstract = {This paper evaluates which structural characteristics matter for macroeconomic resilience, in particular regarding the capacity to absorb and recover from common shocks across euro area Member States over the period from 1998 to 2018. Applying a panel regression analysis and Bayesian model averaging, the paper aims to identify a set of factors as diverse and specific as possible in order to guide future policy actions. These country-specific factors relate to the macroeconomic conditions, the functioning of product, labour and financial markets, institutional quality and to deeply entrenched structural factors. The empirical analysis suggests that the factors conditioning the shock absorption across euro area Member States largely differ from those facilitating recovery in the face of a common shock. More specifically, labour market features play an important role in shock absorption with higher levels of labour market rigidity dampening the shock absorption capacity most. The recovery capacity is affected by a broader set of factors, especially those that hinder the reallocation of labour as well as of the production of goods and services. While high public debt seems to hinder shock absorption capacity, high private debt weakens the recovery capacity. Some factors such as high economic openness have a negative impact on the absorption capacity in case of a common shock as it also affects trading partners, while having a positive impact on the recovery capacity. The results also suggest that degrees of macroeconomic resilience differ across the euro area and well-calibrated reforms are needed to address the nexus of country-specific challenges.& COPY; 2023 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, keywords = {Common shocks; economic structures; structural reforms; Macroeconomic resilience}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1878-5433} } @article{MTMT:34649068, title = {Risky Gravity}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34649068}, author = {Juvenal, Luciana and Monteiro, Paulo Santos}, doi = {10.1093/jeea/jvad060}, journal-iso = {J EUR ECON ASSOC}, journal = {JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION}, unique-id = {34649068}, issn = {1542-4766}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1542-4774} } @article{MTMT:33950654, title = {The impact of the US-China trade war on domestic and multinational companies in China}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950654}, author = {Lee, Joonhyung and Nguyen, Duy Vu}, doi = {10.1111/twec.13402}, journal-iso = {WORLD ECON}, journal = {WORLD ECONOMY}, volume = {46}, unique-id = {33950654}, issn = {0378-5920}, abstract = {This short paper investigates whether the US-China trade war has a different impact on domestic and multinational companies in China. Using the Orbis database with the coverage of ownership structure, we can identify Chinese multinational companies that own foreign subsidiaries with at least 51% stake. Then, using a panel dataset of Chinese companies from 2011 to 2019, we compare revenues of multinational and domestic companies before and after the trade war. We have found that multinational companies have about 8% higher in revenue after the trade war than domestic ones. These findings are consistent with the recent literature on the real hedging channel that operation flexibility reduces the impacts of tariff shocks.}, keywords = {MNC; Firm-level analysis; US-China trade war}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1467-9701}, pages = {2990-2998} } @article{MTMT:34649064, title = {Industrial agglomeration and energy efficiency. A new perspective from market integration}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34649064}, author = {Qin, Quande and Yu, Ying and Liu, Yuan and Zhou, Jianqing and Chen, Xiude}, doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113793}, journal-iso = {ENERG POLICY}, journal = {ENERGY POLICY}, volume = {183}, unique-id = {34649064}, issn = {0301-4215}, keywords = {Energy efficiency; Energy efficiency; Market integration; Market integration; industrial agglomeration; industrial agglomeration; specialized agglomeration; specialized agglomeration; diversified agglomeration; diversified agglomeration}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1873-6777} } @article{MTMT:34341018, title = {An empirical assessment of the role of trade in services in export product diversification in Sub-Saharan Africa}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34341018}, author = {Sawadogo, Bouraima and Fouopi Djiogap, Constant and Ouedraogo, Idrissa and Takpara, Moukaila Mouzamilou}, doi = {10.1007/s11123-023-00685-0}, journal-iso = {J PROD ANAL}, journal = {JOURNAL OF PRODUCTIVITY ANALYSIS}, unique-id = {34341018}, issn = {0895-562X}, abstract = {This paper identifies the dimensions of international trade in services that promote export product diversification in an unbalanced panel of 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the period 2005-2019. Using the two-step system Generalized Methtod of Moments (GMM), the results show that tourism, total services exports, export in transport services, travel services, insurances services, financial services, use of licenses services and other business services promote export product diversification in SSA. Policy makers can make commercial services export an important lever for export products diversification by adopting policies and strategies to develop and orient the commercial services towards more efficient and high value-added services.}, keywords = {tourism; GMM; sub Saharan Africa; Export product diversification; Trade in services}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1573-0441}, orcid-numbers = {Sawadogo, Bouraima/0000-0002-4103-6056; Ouedraogo, Idrissa/0000-0001-6058-0359} } @article{MTMT:34341016, title = {How did GVC-trade respond to previous health shocks? Evidence from SARS and MERS}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34341016}, author = {Shingal, Anirudh and Agarwal, Prachi}, doi = {10.1111/roie.12701}, journal-iso = {REV INT ECON}, journal = {REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, unique-id = {34341016}, issn = {0965-7576}, abstract = {A health crisis can impact GVCs adversely by raising bilateral trade costs and via supply- and demand-side shocks in the exporting and importing countries. Focusing on trade in select GVC-intensive sectors, we disentangle the effects of these different channels in the context of SARS and MERS in a structural gravity framework. The estimated effects are found to be small in magnitude and show significant heterogeneity by sector, channel and disease outbreak. SARS-induced rise in bilateral trade costs is found to reduce the export value and number of products traded of both intermediate and final goods, while similar adverse effects from MERS are only observed on intermediate goods export value. There is more evidence for the adverse effects of supply-shocks from both SARS and MERS in our results, while the expected negative effects of the demand-shock are only observed for MERS. The SARS effects are found to diminish over time, pointing to resilience of the associated value-chains. We also find suggestive evidence for SARS in particular being associated with geographical diversification and widening of value-chains.}, keywords = {DIVERSIFICATION; SARS; MERS; COVID-19; GVC-trade}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1467-9396}, orcid-numbers = {Shingal, Anirudh/0000-0001-8007-7531} } @article{MTMT:34341017, title = {Export diversification and dependence on natural resources}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34341017}, author = {Zarach, Zuzanna Helena and Parteka, Aleksandra}, doi = {10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106436}, journal-iso = {ECON MODEL}, journal = {ECONOMIC MODELLING}, volume = {126}, unique-id = {34341017}, issn = {0264-9993}, abstract = {Low export diversification is a risk-augmenting factor for many countries dependent on natural resources. The literature tends to focus on the growth effects of resource dependence ('resource curse' debate) while not much is known on how it affects the variety of non-resource exports. To quantify this effect we decompose the relative Theil index using product-level export data from 160 countries over the time period 1996-2018. We reveal that most (above 70%) of low export diversification level is driven by the limited variety of products other than natural resources. At the same time, natural resource dependence (in particular on fossil fuels) correlates negatively with the diversification of the non-resource portion of the export basket, in particular of technologically advanced products. Econometric estimates with interaction terms and case studies of countries that managed to escape the resource trap show that institutional quality determines the ability of resource exporters to diversify.}, keywords = {Natural resources; Export diversification; Theil decomposition}, year = {2023}, eissn = {1873-6122}, orcid-numbers = {Zarach, Zuzanna Helena/0000-0001-7810-086X; Parteka, Aleksandra/0000-0003-1149-6614} } @article{MTMT:33476362, title = {Political conflict and angry consumers: Evaluating the regional impacts of a consumer boycott on travel services trade}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476362}, author = {Ahn, JaeBin and Greaney, Theresa M. and Kiyota, Kozo}, doi = {10.1016/j.jjie.2022.101216}, journal-iso = {J JPN INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF THE JAPANESE AND INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIES}, volume = {65}, unique-id = {33476362}, issn = {0889-1583}, abstract = {Political conflict between nations sometimes leads to consumer boycotts. We examine the regional impacts of bilateral boycott activity by investigating the 2019 Korean consumer boycott of travel to Japan. Employing triple- and double-differences designs, we find that the impact of the boycott is large and regionally heterogeneous. Japanese prefectures with high (i.e., 75th percentile) pre-boycott dependency on visitors from Korea suffer bilateral export losses of 56.9 to 60.9 percent and aggregate export losses of 10.5 to 13.3 percent. Prefectures with low (i.e., 25th percentile) Korea dependency experience bilateral losses of 47.8 to 49.7 percent and aggregate losses of 3.3 to 4.2 percent.}, keywords = {political conflict; Consumer boycott; Travel services trade; Local market; Regional impact}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1095-8681}, orcid-numbers = {Greaney, Theresa M./0000-0001-8218-121X} } @article{MTMT:33476349, title = {VOLATILITY AND THE GAINS FROM TRADE}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476349}, author = {Allen, Treb and Atkin, David}, doi = {10.3982/ECTA14411}, journal-iso = {ECONOMETRICA}, journal = {ECONOMETRICA}, volume = {90}, unique-id = {33476349}, issn = {0012-9682}, abstract = {Trade liberalization changes the volatility of returns by reducing the negative correlation between local prices and productivity shocks. In this paper, we explore these second-moment effects of trade. Using forty years of agricultural micro-data from India, we show that falling trade costs due to expansions of the Indian highway network reduced the responsiveness of local prices to local yields but increased the responsiveness of local prices to yields elsewhere. In response, farmers shifted their production toward crops with less volatile yields, especially so for those with poor access to risk mitigating technologies such as banks. We then characterize how volatility affects farmers' crop allocation using a portfolio choice framework where returns are determined in general equilibrium by a many-location, many-good Ricardian trade model with flexible trade costs. Finally, we structurally estimate the model-recovering farmers' risk-return preferences from the gradient of the mean-variance frontier at their observed crop choices-to quantify the second-moment effects of trade. The simultaneous expansion of both the highway and rural bank networks increased the mean and the variance of farmer real income, with the first-moment effect dominating such that expected welfare rose 4.4%. But had rural bank access remained unchanged, welfare gains would have been only half as great, as risk mitigating technologies allowed farmers to take advantage of higher-risk higher-return allocations.}, keywords = {India; AGRICULTURAL TRADE; PORTFOLIO CHOICE; Heterogeneous traders; Crop choice; Trade and risk; mean-variance frontier}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1468-0262}, pages = {2053-2092} } @article{MTMT:33476360, title = {Tail-risk spillovers from China to G7 stock market returns during the COVID-19 outbreak: A market and sectoral analysis}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476360}, author = {Aloui, Riadh and Ben Jabeur, Sami and Mefteh-Wali, Salma}, doi = {10.1016/j.ribaf.2022.101709}, journal-iso = {RES INT BUSINESS FINANCE}, journal = {RESEARCH IN INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS AND FINANCE}, volume = {62}, unique-id = {33476360}, issn = {0275-5319}, abstract = {This study uses a combination of copulas and CoVaR to investigate risk spillovers from China to G7 countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using daily data on stock and equity sectors for the period from January 1, 2013 to June 9, 2021, the main empirical results show that, before the COVID-19 pandemic, stock markets were positively related and systemic risk was comparable for all countries. However, during the COVID-19 outbreak, the level of dependence increased for all G7 countries and the upside-downside risk spillovers become on average higher for all stock markets, with the exception of Japan. Our results also provide evidence of higher market risk exposure to information from China for the technology and energy sectors. Moreover, we find an asymmetric risk spillover from China to the G7 stock markets, with higher intensity in downside risk spillovers before and during COVID-19 spread.}, keywords = {Copulas; vár; systemic risk; Stock indices; Equity sectors; CoVaR}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1878-3384}, orcid-numbers = {Aloui, Riadh/0000-0002-1556-7531} } @article{MTMT:33248724, title = {Risks and Global Supply Chains: What We Know and What We Need to Know}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33248724}, author = {Baldwin, Richard and Freeman, Rebecca}, doi = {10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-113737}, journal-iso = {ANNU REV ECON}, journal = {ANNUAL REVIEW OF ECONOMICS}, volume = {14}, unique-id = {33248724}, issn = {1941-1383}, abstract = {Recent supply disruptions catapulted the issue of risk in global supply chains (GSCs) to the top of policy agendas and created the impression that shortages would have been less severe if GSCs had been either shorter and more domestic or more diversified. But is this right? We start our answer by reviewing studies that look at risks to and from GSCs and at how GSCs have recovered from past shocks. We then look at whether GSCs are too risky, starting with business research on how firms approach the cost-resilience trade-off. We propose the risk-versus-reward framework from portfolio theory as a good way to evaluate whether anti-risk policy is justified. We then discuss how exposures to foreign shocks are measured and argue that exposure is higher than direct indicators imply. Finally, we consider the future of GSCs in light of current policy proposals and advancing technology before pointing to the rich menu of topics for future research on the risk-GSC nexus.}, keywords = {RISK; globalization; RESILIENCE; GSCs; Global supply chains; input reliance}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1941-1391}, pages = {153-180} } @article{MTMT:33476372, title = {Complexity, tacit knowledge and the scope for technological catch-up}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476372}, author = {Bekkers, Eddy and Landesmann, Michael and Macskasi, Indre}, doi = {10.1111/twec.13198}, journal-iso = {WORLD ECON}, journal = {WORLD ECONOMY}, volume = {45}, unique-id = {33476372}, issn = {0378-5920}, abstract = {We study the determinants of sectoral patterns of technological catch-up of emerging economies. In particular, we test the hypotheses that technological catch-up is slower in tacit knowledge-intensive sectors, operationalised by measures of complex task intensity, in sectors with a high skill intensity, with a high degree of export sophistication, and higher income elasticity. Employing trade data from United Nations Comtrade and production data from the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) between 1960 and 2000 covering manufacturing sectors, we find that catch-up is slower in more tacit knowledge-intensive sectors, as well as in skill-intensive and export sophisticated sectors. With more recent Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) data from 1997 to 2011, we find instead that catch-up is faster in more tacit knowledge-intensive manufacturing sectors, whereas catch-up is slower in more tacit knowledge-intensive services sectors. We discuss three potential explanations for the changing association of catch-up with tacit knowledge intensity.}, keywords = {tacit knowledge; technological catch-up; sectoral TFP}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1467-9701}, pages = {1179-1212} } @article{MTMT:33476366, title = {Anxiety or pain? The impact of tariffs and uncertainty on Chinese firms in the trade war}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476366}, author = {Benguria, Felipe and Choi, Jaerim and Swenson, Deborah L. and Xu, Mingzhi (Jimmy)}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2022.103608}, journal-iso = {J INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {137}, unique-id = {33476366}, issn = {0022-1996}, abstract = {The unexpected outbreak of the U.S.-China trade war led to dramatic increases in the import and export tariffs confronting Chinese firms, and ushered in an era of unprecedented trade policy uncertainty (TPU). To assess the effects of this development on the operations of Chinese firms we adopt a new textual analysis approach to listed firms' annual reports that allows us to create measures of TPU that vary over firms and time. Linking our new TPU measures to firm-level trade war exposure shows that increases in U.S. tariffs and Chinese retaliatory tariffs elevated firm-level TPU. The effects of Chinese firm-level tariff changes on firm TPU are heterogeneous: smaller firms experienced the most pronounced increases while firms that were more diversified in terms of partner countries were more insulated. Importantly, connecting firm-level increases in TPU during the trade war with subsequent firm performance reveals notable impairment of firm operations. Our estimates indicate that Chinese firms hit by a one standard deviation increase in TPU during the trade war reduced firm-level investment, R&D expenditures, and profits by 2.3, 2.3, and 11.5 percent, respectively.(c) 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).}, keywords = {trade war; Tariffs; Trade policy uncertainty; Firm-level analysis}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1873-0353}, orcid-numbers = {Choi, Jaerim/0000-0003-0412-3182} } @article{MTMT:33887048, title = {Impact of outward foreign direct investment on employment volatility: Evidence from China}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33887048}, author = {Cen, Yuting and Dong, Nannan}, doi = {10.1111/asej.12283}, journal-iso = {ASIAN ECON J}, journal = {ASIAN ECONOMIC JOURNAL}, volume = {36}, unique-id = {33887048}, issn = {1351-3958}, abstract = {Does outward foreign direct investment (OFDI) help stabilize employment in the home country? This paper studies the relationship between the volatility of employment growth and the OFDI of a firm using matched data of Chinese firms from 2000 to 2019. The empirical analysis shows that employment in OFDI firms is less volatile than that in non-OFDI firms. For firms in the eastern coastal areas of China, OFDI has a more obvious effect in restraining employment volatility. OFDI is also conducive to reducing employment volatility for firms that conduct OFDI in Asian, European, and American countries. Firms in the service sector conducting OFDI see a greater reduction in employment volatility. In addition, OFDI affects employment volatility mainly through the channels of technological innovation and production transfers. This study recommends that the government enact reforms in the domestic market to encourage more firms in China to invest.}, keywords = {difference-in-differences; Outward foreign direct investment; Employment volatility}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1467-8381}, pages = {385-410}, orcid-numbers = {Cen, Yuting/0000-0002-7765-8578} } @article{MTMT:33476364, title = {COVID-19, firm exposure, and firm value: A tale of two lockdowns}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476364}, author = {Ding, Haoyuan and Fan, Haichao and Lin, Shu}, doi = {10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101721}, journal-iso = {CHINA ECON REV}, journal = {CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW}, volume = {71}, unique-id = {33476364}, issn = {1043-951X}, abstract = {We study how a public health crisis affects the corporate sector at different phases of outbreak. Using an event study approach, we find significant valuation effects in a sample of Chinese listed firms following two symbolic events in the outbreak of COVID-19: (1) the lockdown of Hubei province; and (2) the containment of the disease in China and its spread to overseas. Market responded negatively (positively) to the first (second) event. Regression analysis further reveals that, following the first event, firms with Hubei (foreign) exposures earned significantly lower (higher) returns. Foreign exposures, however, had significantly negative effects on returns following the second event. The valuation effects of Hubei and foreign exposures also vary across firm ownership and industries. Our results indicate that, in a globalized world, firms' international status, internal networks and input-output linkages all play important roles in determining their exposures to the pandemic.}, keywords = {CHINA; COVID-19; Firm exposures; Valuation effect}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1873-7781} } @article{MTMT:33476370, title = {Demand risk and diversification through international trade}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476370}, author = {Esposito, Federico}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103562}, journal-iso = {J INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {135}, unique-id = {33476370}, issn = {0022-1996}, abstract = {I develop a theory of risk diversification through geography. In a general equilibrium trade model with monopolistic competition and stochastic demand, risk-averse entrepreneurs exploit the spatial correlation of demand across countries to lower the variance of their global sales. The model implies that both the probability of entry and trade flows to a country are increasing in the "Diversification Index", which depends on the multilateral covariance of the country's demand with all other markets. The risk diversification behavior can lead to higher welfare gains from trade than the ones predicted by trade models with risk neutrality. Using a panel of international sales of Portuguese firms, I estimate "risk-augmented" gravity regressions, which show that the Diversification Index significantly affects trade patterns at the extensive and intensive margins. In general equilibrium, the risk diversification channel increases welfare gains from trade by 17% relative to trade models with risk neutrality.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, keywords = {demand uncertainty; Gravity equation; Risk diversification; Welfare gains from trade}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1873-0353} } @article{MTMT:32321535, title = {Importing inputs for climate change mitigation. The case of agricultural productivity}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32321535}, author = {Garcia-Verdu, Rodrigo and Meyer-Cirkel, Alexis and Sasahara, Akira and Weisfeld, Hans}, doi = {10.1111/roie.12551}, journal-iso = {REV INT ECON}, journal = {REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {30}, unique-id = {32321535}, issn = {0965-7576}, abstract = {This paper investigates the effects of temperature on agricultural TFP growth rates during the period 1992-2015. We argue that higher temperatures impede TFP growth, particularly in low-income countries (LICs) using less imported inputs. Our estimates imply that a 1 degrees C rise in annual average temperatures reduces TFP growth rates by 5.2 percentage points in the LICs in question. However, LICs using greater amounts of imported inputs are less affected by temperatures, suggesting a new source of gains from imported inputs mitigating the adverse effects of rising temperatures.}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1467-9396}, pages = {34-56}, orcid-numbers = {Sasahara, Akira/0000-0002-4384-0806} } @article{MTMT:33476368, title = {Aid for Trade Flows and Real Exchange Rate Volatility in Recipient-Countries}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476368}, author = {Gnangnon, Sena Kimm}, doi = {10.1142/S1793993322500016}, journal-iso = {J INT COMMERCE ECON POLICY}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL COMMERCE ECONOMICS AND POLICY}, volume = {13}, unique-id = {33476368}, issn = {1793-9933}, abstract = {This paper aims to contribute to the literature on the determinants of real exchange rate volatility by investigating the effect of Aid for Trade (AfT) flows on real exchange rate volatility in recipient-countries. The empirical findings show that over the full sample, AfT flows influence negatively the volatility of real exchange rate, with a lower reducing effect on Least developed countries (LDCs) compared to NonLDCs. The channels through which this effect materializes include export product concentration, institutional and governance quality, foreign direct investment inflows and terms of trade volatility. These results show that AfT flows clearly matter for real exchange rate volatility.}, keywords = {terms of trade volatility; aid for trade; Export product diversification; real exchange rate volatility; institutional and governance quality; foreign direct investment inflows}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1793-9941} } @article{MTMT:33476358, title = {The impact of FDI on foreign trade in Arab countries}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476358}, author = {Ismail, Hosameldin H.}, doi = {10.21833/ijaas.2022.04.012}, journal-iso = {INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES}, journal = {INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED AND APPLIED SCIENCES}, volume = {9}, unique-id = {33476358}, issn = {2313-626X}, abstract = {This study aims to identify the reality of FDI in Arab countries and analyze the relationship between FDI and foreign trade in Arab countries during the period 2000-2018. Statistical analysis tools such as the correlation coefficient and ANOVA analysis were used to test the significance of the linear regression between the variables, to analyze the relationship between FDI (independent variable) and all of the Arab exports and imports, trade balance, and Arab foreign trade (dependent variable). Despite the rapid liberalization programs of investment systems and the trend towards privatization and liberalization of economic activity and joining the WTO (hence, WTO), and other measures, the flow of foreign investments to Arab countries continues. Only three countries (UAE-Egypt-Oman) accounted for 68.5% of the total FDI coming to Arab countries in 2018. This indicates the weakness of many other Arab countries in attracting FDI. Results showed that the European Union is the leading trading partner of the Arab countries. The UAE and France topped the countries investing in the Arab countries. The statistical analysis results showed that the correlation between FDI (as an independent variable) and Arab foreign trade (as a dependent variable) is a positive, medium-strength. They also proved that (17.8%) of Arab foreign trade could be explained using FDI, while the remaining percentage is attributed to other variables. (c) 2022 The Authors. Published by IASE.}, keywords = {FDI; Exports; imports; trade balance; Arab foreign trade}, year = {2022}, pages = {97-105} } @article{MTMT:32322520, title = {Trade and employment volatility of firms during the global financial crisis and post-crisis}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32322520}, author = {Kim, Minjung}, doi = {10.1007/s00181-021-02096-2}, journal-iso = {EMPIR ECON}, journal = {EMPIRICAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {62}, unique-id = {32322520}, issn = {0377-7332}, abstract = {There exists a theoretically ambiguous relationship between employment volatility and trade. Using a 2006-2015 firm-level unbalanced panel dataset for South Korea, this study investigates whether the globalization of firms transmits foreign shocks to domestic employment volatility and examines how foreign shocks that affect domestic employment are transmitted during both a crisis period and a post-crisis period. My empirical findings show that foreign demand shocks to domestic employment are transmitted through inter-firm exports during a post-crisis period window, while foreign demand and supply shocks on domestic employment are transmitted through intra-firm two-way trade and intra-firm imports during a crisis period window. These results show the asymmetric response of intra-firm trade and inter-firm trade to shocks during the crisis and post-crisis periods. Therefore, these results imply structural changes to the transmission channels of foreign shocks that impact domestic employment volatility after the crisis period. In addition, foreign direct investment has a positive effect on employment volatility. This implies higher employment volatility if a firm has overseas production plants, as presence abroad prompts the firm to substitute foreign workers for domestic workers. These findings may have significant implications for policy makers seeking to identify sources of labor market instability.}, keywords = {FDI; Intra-firm trade; Inter-firm trade; Employment volatility}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1435-8921}, pages = {2091-2109} } @article{MTMT:32955084, title = {Export diversification in low-income countries and small states: Do country size and income level matter?}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32955084}, author = {Lee, Dongyeol and Zhang, Huan}, doi = {10.1016/j.strueco.2021.11.017}, journal-iso = {STRUCT CHANGE ECON DYNAM}, journal = {STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC DYNAMICS}, volume = {60}, unique-id = {32955084}, issn = {0954-349X}, abstract = {Export structure is less diversified in low-income countries (LICs) and small states that generally face constraints in resources and economic size. This paper presents an empirical analysis on the linkages between export structure and economic growth/volatility in LICs and small states, by using a variant of export concentration indices. The analysis documents that export diversification in products or industries may promote economic growth and reduce economic volatility in these countries. The analysis further demonstrates that the economic benefits of export diversification differ by the country size and income level-larger gains for relatively small and poor countries within a group of LICs and small states. In addition, diversification in export partners or markets tends to be beneficial for economic growth and stability.(c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, keywords = {GROWTH; VOLATILITY; Low-income countries; small states; Export diversfication}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1873-6017}, pages = {250-265}, orcid-numbers = {Lee, Dongyeol/0000-0001-9359-8117} } @article{MTMT:33476357, title = {The Factory and the Hub:An Anatomy of Canada's Import Dependence on the US}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476357}, author = {Martin, Julien and Mayneris, Florian}, doi = {10.3138/cpp.2021-072}, journal-iso = {CAN PUBLIC POL}, journal = {CANADIAN PUBLIC POLICY-ANALYSE DE POLITIQUES}, volume = {48}, unique-id = {33476357}, issn = {0317-0861}, abstract = {We revisit the reliance of Canada on the US for its imports using new product-level data on the country of origin, the last exporting country, and the transport mode of Canadian imports. We not only show that the US is a key supplier of Canada, but also a key logistical hub: half of the imports from non-US suppliers enter Canada through the US. Therefore, 77 percent of Canadian imports are tied to the US through production or logistical linkages, well above the 55 percent usually reported in the public debate. We show that this reliance on the US is pervasive across most product categories and for Canada's main trade partners. We exploit this new measure of reliance on the US together with input-output tables to quantify the direct and indirect reliance of Canadian industries on the US through their input usage. For the average Canadian industry, the US-related content of its inputs reaches 24 percent. We finally discuss some of the policy implications of these results.}, keywords = {Global value chains; import diversification; import dependence; logistical hub}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1911-9917}, pages = {360-373} } @article{MTMT:33248720, title = {Mapping global value chain participation and positioning in agriculture and food: stylised facts, empirical evidence and critical issues}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33248720}, author = {Nenci, Silvia and Fusacchia, Ilaria and Giunta, Anna and Montalbano, Pierluigi and Pietrobelli, Carlo}, doi = {10.36253/bae-12558}, journal-iso = {BAE}, journal = {BIO-BASED AND APPLIED ECONOMICS}, volume = {11}, unique-id = {33248720}, issn = {2280-6180}, abstract = {This paper aims to overview the recent body of empirical work on the importance of Global Value Chains (GVCs) in international production and trade. We begin by reviewing different approaches and levels of GVC analysis. We then consider developments in methods and data. Focusing on the agriculture and food sector, we present a map of GVC measures - at the country and sectoral level - computed using trade in value added data to allow researchers to better assess the countries' engagement in GVCs. We also apply this data to show some stylized facts on GVC participation and positioning in agriculture and food and provide empirical evidence of the economic impact of the GVCs on these sectors. We conclude with some critical issues and speculative thoughts regarding the future of GVCs.}, keywords = {Survey; Global value chains; participation and positioning; trade in value added; agricultural and food sectors}, year = {2022}, eissn = {2280-6172}, pages = {93-121} } @article{MTMT:33476352, title = {Assessment of the Level of Economies' Foreign Trade Diversification}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476352}, author = {Popov, Oleksandr and Melnikov, Sergiy and Skachkov, Oleksandr and Lyba, Vasiliy}, doi = {10.5709/ce.1897-9254.482}, journal-iso = {CONTEMP ECONOM}, journal = {CONTEMPORARY ECONOMICS}, volume = {16}, unique-id = {33476352}, issn = {2084-0845}, abstract = {The aim of the study is to consider the concept of diversification in the context of foreign trade, to clarify the classification of types of foreign trade diversification, ways to assess the level and to conduct a mass assessment of the level of foreign trade diversification of countries. The justification of the undertaken topic is that the national economies of the modern world do not function autonomously, they are interconnected by trade, co-production, financial and migration flows, and following international integration, these relationships are only strengthening. Therefore, the disruption of foreign trade relations of countries can cause more problems, lower the level of their foreign trade diversification. However, despite of these, today the issue of foreign trade diversification is not sufficiently deeply studied, including ways to classify foreign trade diversification and assess its level. The research methodology includes methods for calculating indicators characterizing the level of diversification. For calculations, the values of indicators characterizing the annual volume of international trade of the countries of the world are used. The results of calculation of indicators of the level of foreign trade diversification according to statistical data on the volume of imports and exports of the world are presented. Choropleth maps of the level of foreign trade diversification of the world are created. Conclusions are made on the possibility and convenience of using indicators of foreign trade diversification.}, keywords = {DIVERSIFICATION; foreign trade; geographical diversification; commodity diversification}, year = {2022}, eissn = {2300-8814}, pages = {276-296}, orcid-numbers = {Popov, Oleksandr/0000-0002-0358-2419} } @article{MTMT:33476353, title = {New Directions in the European Union's Regulatory Framework for Corporate Reporting, Due Diligence and Accountability. The Challenge of Complexity}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33476353}, author = {Villiers, Charlotte}, doi = {10.1017/err.2022.25}, journal-iso = {EUR J RISK REGUL}, journal = {EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF RISK REGULATION}, volume = {13}, unique-id = {33476353}, issn = {1867-299X}, abstract = {Climate change and the pursuit of sustainability and sustainable business might be regarded as among the world's "wicked problems", especially as they are multi-dimensional problems. Achieving corporate accountability in this context is also difficult when corporate structures are complex as they operate globally and through supply chains. At the European level, under the Green Deal, the Sustainable Finance Initiative and the Sustainable Corporate Governance Initiative include new reporting requirements to amend and expand the scope and application of the 2014 Non-Financial Reporting Directive, alongside changes to directors' duties to ensure they take account of stakeholders' needs and environmental and human rights due diligence requirements. This paper will argue that these legislative and regulatory efforts are to be welcomed, but the complexity of the regulation threatens to undermine its potential impact. It may therefore be necessary to reduce some of the complexity of the regulatory arrangements. However, some complexity may increase resilience and adaptability for responding to the risks involved in the uncertainty and unpredictability of climate change and in dealing with complex corporate structures. The answer is to provide robust regulation that will prompt the corporate behaviours required to avoid the catastrophic trajectory we currently face.}, keywords = {sustainability; Corporate governance; reporting; complexity; due diligence}, year = {2022}, eissn = {2190-8249}, pages = {548-566} } @article{MTMT:33950657, title = {From Price to Gain: The Evolution of Household Income Volatility and Consumption Insurance in Urban China}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33950657}, author = {Zhao, Da and Guo, Jingyuan and Zou, Hong and Song, Ze}, doi = {10.1111/cwe.12448}, journal-iso = {CHINA WORLD ECON}, journal = {CHINA & WORLD ECONOMY}, volume = {30}, unique-id = {33950657}, issn = {1671-2234}, abstract = {This paper exploits a novel and unique opportunity to reveal the evolution of income volatility and consumption insurance from 1992 to 2014 in urban China. We found that (i) the average household experienced a downward trend in income and consumption volatility. Although the global financial crisis in 2008 caused a slight spike, it did not reverse the downward trend. (ii) Households' ability to smooth income shocks improved significantly, and the consumption insurance against permanent (transitory) income shocks increased from 0.6172 (0.8307) to 0.7453 (0.8742) - that is, the transmission of permanent (transitory) income shocks to consumption decreased by 33.46 (25.69) percent from 2004 to 2014. (iii) Welfare analysis indicates that the positive insurance effect counteracted the negative effects of lower economic growth in the 2010-2014 period. Income and consumption volatility, and consumption insurance were heterogeneous across income sources, consumption categories, and various demographic characteristics, which have important implications for understanding China's economic transition.}, keywords = {Income volatility; Consumption insurance; consumption volatility; China's economic transition}, year = {2022}, eissn = {1749-124X}, pages = {113-136} } @article{MTMT:32322521, title = {Protectionist Property Taxes}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32322521}, author = {Hayashi, Andrew T. and Hynes, Richard M.}, journal-iso = {IOWA LAW REV}, journal = {IOWA LAW REVIEW}, volume = {106}, unique-id = {32322521}, issn = {0021-0552}, abstract = {National restrictions on trade and immigration are the most salient illustrations of the current protectionist moment, but cities have played their part too, taxing foreign investors in local real estate and imposing second or vacant home taxes that indirectly burden foreign investment. We call these taxes "protectionist property taxes." Although these taxes are new, they draw from an old well of suspicion about foreign ownership. We provide economic and historical context for the recent wave of protectionist property taxes and evaluate their legality under U.S. law. We conclude that taxes on second or vacant homes would likely survive constitutional challenge but facially protectionist property taxes generally would not. We then assess the policy merits of these taxes using an economic framework that highlights how law affects housing risk. We show that foreign real estate investment can reduce the riskiness of local housing markets so that even if a city can get away with enacting a protectionist property tax, it is not typically a good idea. Government spending can better achieve policy goals such as affordable housing and neighborhood stability without running afoul of constitutional prohibitions.}, year = {2021}, pages = {1091-1151} } @article{MTMT:32478248, title = {Lessons for human survival in a world without ecological templates: What can we learn from small-scale societies?}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32478248}, author = {Kaaronen, R.O. and Manninen, M.A. and Roe, E. and Hukkinen, J.I. and Eronen, J.T.}, doi = {10.5751/ES-12476-260302}, journal-iso = {ECOL SOC}, journal = {ECOLOGY AND SOCIETY}, volume = {26}, unique-id = {32478248}, issn = {1708-3087}, year = {2021} } @article{MTMT:31759535, title = {Does aid for trade promote import diversification?}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31759535}, author = {Ly-My, Dung and Lee, Hyun-Hoon and Park, Donghyun}, doi = {10.1111/twec.13044}, journal-iso = {WORLD ECON}, journal = {WORLD ECONOMY}, volume = {44}, unique-id = {31759535}, issn = {0378-5920}, abstract = {Many studies have found that Aid for Trade (AfT) is effective in promoting the exports and imports of recipient countries. Recently, Gnangnon (The World Economy, 42, 2019 and 396) and Kim (The World Economy, 42, 2019 and 2684) found that AfT also contributes to the export diversification of recipient countries. We extend previous studies by assessing the effects of AfT on import diversification of recipient countries by estimating a two-step System GMM on a data set of 104 countries in 2003-2016. Our empirical results reveal that AfT contributes to the diversification of both import commodities and import partners. This effect is particularly strong when partner countries are Non-DAC countries. Our empirical evidence further strengthens the case for AfT because previous literature indicates that both export and import diversification are beneficial.}, keywords = {Developing Countries; aid for trade; import diversification}, year = {2021}, eissn = {1467-9701}, pages = {1740-1769} } @article{MTMT:32322519, title = {Trade Integration, Global Value Chains, and Capital Accumulation}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32322519}, author = {Sposi, Michael and Yi, Kei-Mu and Zhang, Jing}, doi = {10.1057/s41308-021-00141-9}, journal-iso = {IMF ECON REV}, journal = {IMF ECONOMIC REVIEW}, volume = {69}, unique-id = {32322519}, issn = {2041-4161}, abstract = {Motivated by increasing trade and fragmentation of production across countries, accompanied by income convergence by many emerging economies, we build a dynamic two-country model featuring sequential, multi-stage production and capital accumulation. As trade costs decline over time, global-value-chain (GVC) trade expands across countries, particularly more in the faster-growing country, consistent with the empirical pattern. Via Heckscher-Ohlin forces, GVC trade can generate back-and-forth feedback between comparative advantage and capital accumulation (growth). Moreover, GVC trade increases both steady-state and dynamic gains from trade.}, keywords = {F43; E22; F10}, year = {2021}, eissn = {2041-417X}, pages = {505-539} } @article{MTMT:31759536, title = {Can global uncertainty promote international trade?}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31759536}, author = {Baley, Isaac and Veldkamp, Laura and Waugh, Michael}, doi = {10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103347}, journal-iso = {J INT ECON}, journal = {JOURNAL OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {126}, unique-id = {31759536}, issn = {0022-1996}, abstract = {Common wisdom holds that uncertainty impedes trade-yet we show that uncertainty can fuel more trade in a simple general equilibrium trade model with information frictions. in equilibrium, increases in uncertainty increase both the mean and variance in returns to exporting. This implies that trade can increase or decrease with uncertainty, depending on preferences. Under general conditions on preferences, we characterize the importance of these forces using a sufficient statistics approach. Higher uncertainty leads to increases in trade because agents receive improved terms of trade, particularly in states of nature in which consumption is most valuable. Trade creates value, in part, by offering a mechanism for risk sharing, and risk sharing is most effective when both parties are uninformed. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.}, keywords = {learning; UNCERTAINTY; international trade; risk-sharing; Terms of trade; Information frictions}, year = {2020}, eissn = {1873-0353} } @article{MTMT:31450733, title = {Output volatility, composition of trade, and transmission of economic shocks across countries}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31450733}, author = {Karim, Ridwan and Stoyanov, Andrey}, doi = {10.1111/roie.12465}, journal-iso = {REV INT ECON}, journal = {REVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {28}, unique-id = {31450733}, issn = {0965-7576}, abstract = {In this paper we investigate how supply and demand shocks in one country affect output volatility in other countries. While the evidence for cross-country transmission of demand shocks is mixed, we find that volatile supply in one country leads to larger imports and output volatility in other countries. As a result, the effect of trade openness on output volatility is highly heterogeneous across countries and depends on the composition of their trade. Those countries whose imports originate in economies with volatile supply experience a greater impact of trade on output volatility.}, year = {2020}, eissn = {1467-9396}, pages = {626-655} } @article{MTMT:31679149, title = {Business disruptions from social distancing}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31679149}, author = {Koren, Miklós and Pető, Rita}, doi = {10.1371/journal.pone.0239113}, journal-iso = {PLOS ONE}, journal = {PLOS ONE}, volume = {15}, unique-id = {31679149}, issn = {1932-6203}, year = {2020}, eissn = {1932-6203} } @article{MTMT:31759534, title = {What drives cross-country differences in export variety? A bilateral panel approach}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31759534}, author = {Parteka, Aleksandra}, doi = {10.1016/j.econmod.2020.07.001}, journal-iso = {ECON MODEL}, journal = {ECONOMIC MODELLING}, volume = {92}, unique-id = {31759534}, issn = {0264-9993}, abstract = {A worldwide event like the 2020 Coronavirus outbreak can only reinforce the interest in modelling trade diversification as a key factor in countries' vulnerability to external shocks. This paper adopts a detailed relative framework to study the determinants of product-level export variety in a large bilateral panel of developing and developed economies (16,770 country pairs in the period 1988-2014). We find that country pairs characterized by large differentials in productivity and in the makeup of the labour force differ in export variety patterns. This result holds after controlling for other endowments and for trade costs. Further, productivity plays a significant role in the reduction of export variety dissimilarities between countries belonging to different income groups. Hence, without successful technological convergence the low-income economies will not be able to reduce their exposure to export risk.}, keywords = {Export variety; TRADE; Export diversification; Bilateral panel}, year = {2020}, eissn = {1873-6122}, pages = {48-56}, orcid-numbers = {Parteka, Aleksandra/0000-0003-1149-6614} }