@article{MTMT:31042664, title = {Validation of RegCM regional and HadGEM global climate models using mean and extreme climatic variables}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31042664}, author = {Pieczka, Ildikó and Bartholy, Judit and Pongrácz, Rita and Szabóné André, Karolina}, doi = {10.28974/idojaras.2019.4.1}, journal-iso = {IDŐJÁRÁS}, journal = {IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE}, volume = {123}, unique-id = {31042664}, issn = {0324-6329}, abstract = {The horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs) is still too coarse to evaluate regional climatic differences, therefore, to analyze regional environmental changes, it is essential to downscale the GCM simulation results. One of the methods widely and most often used for this purpose is dynamical downscaling. In the present paper we examine the ability of a specific global (HadGEM2-ES) and a specific regional climate model (RegCM) to describe present climatic conditions in different geographical areas within the Med-CORDEX domain. Our main goal with this validation is to inform researchers, who are planning to complete climate change impact studies about the major characteristics of the simulation outputs, serving as important input in such studies. So we analyzed annual and seasonal mean fields, mean error fields relative to the reference measurements, and selected climate indices. On the basis of the results, dynamical downscaling generally cools the HadGEM results, which depends on the distance from the ocean, and orography. A clear improvement can be recognized in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of temperature indices when using finer resolution. Moreover, dynamical downscaling with higher resolution often increases the precipitation in mountains. Furthermore, in order to quantify the potential added value of RegCM simulations, a complex measure was introduced to take into account both the magnitude and spatial extent of bias. The analysis shows a general improvement in the cold-related indices in Central Europe and all temperature-related climate indices in Western Europe. The influence of model resolution is usually so strong, that it results in the underestimation of precipitation indices changing into overestimation and vice versa.}, keywords = {Europe; VALIDATION; SENSITIVITY; REPRESENTATION; Precipitation; simulation; CONVECTION; SCHEME; BENEFITS; CLIMATE MODEL; CMIP5; added value; RegCM; HadGEM2-ES; extreme indices; LIMITED-AREA MODEL}, year = {2019}, eissn = {0324-6329}, pages = {409-433}, orcid-numbers = {Pieczka, Ildikó/0000-0001-5657-9494; Bartholy, Judit/0000-0002-3911-7981; Pongrácz, Rita/0000-0001-7591-7989; Szabóné André, Karolina/0000-0002-2465-1620} } @article{MTMT:3415694, title = {The analysis of climatic indicators using different growing season calculation methods – an application to grapevine grown in Hungary}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3415694}, author = {Mesterházy, Ildikó and Mészáros, Róbert and Pongrácz, Rita and Bodor-Pesti, Péter and Ladányi, Márta}, doi = {10.28974/idojaras.2018.3.1}, journal-iso = {IDŐJÁRÁS}, journal = {IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE}, volume = {122}, unique-id = {3415694}, issn = {0324-6329}, abstract = {The precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods (5mid' and 'int') are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the `5mid' method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 degrees C. In case of the 'int' method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 degrees C (or falls below 10 degrees C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100*) using the '5mid' and 'int' methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance). Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production.}, keywords = {Europe; REGIONS; TRENDS; Vitis vinifera; ANOVA; ALADIN; growing season calculation method; climatic indicator; Bonferroni's correction; RegCM}, year = {2018}, eissn = {0324-6329}, pages = {217-235}, orcid-numbers = {Mészáros, Róbert/0000-0002-0550-9266; Pongrácz, Rita/0000-0001-7591-7989; Ladányi, Márta/0000-0003-3114-8289} } @article{MTMT:3393110, title = {CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3393110}, author = {Belda, M and Skalak, P and Farda, A and Halenka, T and Deque, M and Csima, G and Bartholy, Judit and Torma, Csaba and Boroneant, C and Caian, M and Spiridonov, V}, doi = {10.1155/2015/354727}, journal-iso = {ADV METEOROL}, journal = {ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY}, unique-id = {3393110}, issn = {1687-9317}, abstract = {Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models.}, keywords = {VALIDATION; Precipitation; Carpathian Basin; EASTERN-EUROPE; PROJECT; extremes; ALADIN; CLM; REGCM3; MODELING ACTIVITIES}, year = {2015}, eissn = {1687-9309}, orcid-numbers = {Bartholy, Judit/0000-0002-3911-7981; Torma, Csaba/0000-0002-4240-0788} } @article{MTMT:3347235, title = {Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3347235}, author = {Spinoni, J and Szalai, S and Szentimrey, Tamás and Lakatos, Mónika and Konkolyné Bihari, Zita and Nagy, A and Németh, Ákos and Kovács, T and Mihic, D and Dacic, M and Petrovic, P and Kržič, A and Hiebl, J and Auer, I and Milkovic, J and Štepánek, P and Zahradnícek, P and Kilar, P and Limanowka, D and Pyrc, R and Cheval, S and Birsan, M -V and Dumitrescu, A and Deak, G and Matei, M and Antolovic, I and Nejedlík, P and Štastný, P and Kajaba, P and Bochnícek, O and Galo, D and Mikulová, K and Nabyvanets, Y and Skrynyk, O and Krakovska, S and Gnatiuk, N and Tolasz, R and Antofie, T and Vogt, J}, doi = {10.1002/joc.4059}, journal-iso = {INT J CLIMATOL}, journal = {INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY}, volume = {35}, unique-id = {3347235}, issn = {0899-8418}, year = {2015}, eissn = {1097-0088}, pages = {1322-1344} } @article{MTMT:141246, title = {A comparison of observed trends and simulated changes in extreme climate indices in the Carpathian basin by the end of this century}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/141246}, author = {Pongrácz, Rita and Bartholy, Judit and Szabó, P and Gelybó, Györgyi}, doi = {10.1504/IJGW.2009.027097}, journal-iso = {INT J GLOBAL WARMING}, journal = {INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GLOBAL WARMING}, volume = {1}, unique-id = {141246}, issn = {1758-2083}, keywords = {Precipitation; Carpathian Basin; trend analysis; A2 scenario; B2 scenario; daily minimum temperature; daily maximum temperature; extreme climate index}, year = {2009}, eissn = {1758-2091}, pages = {336-355}, orcid-numbers = {Pongrácz, Rita/0000-0001-7591-7989; Bartholy, Judit/0000-0002-3911-7981} } @inbook{MTMT:141250, title = {Detected and expected trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/141250}, author = {Pongrácz, Rita and Bartholy, Judit and Gelybó, Györgyi and Szabó, P}, booktitle = {BIOCLIMATOLOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS}, doi = {10.1007/978-1-4020-8876-6_2}, unique-id = {141250}, year = {2009}, pages = {15-28}, orcid-numbers = {Pongrácz, Rita/0000-0001-7591-7989; Bartholy, Judit/0000-0002-3911-7981} }