TY - JOUR AU - Pieczka, Ildikó AU - Bartholy, Judit AU - Pongrácz, Rita AU - Szabóné André, Karolina TI - Validation of RegCM regional and HadGEM global climate models using mean and extreme climatic variables JF - IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE J2 - IDŐJÁRÁS VL - 123 PY - 2019 IS - 4 SP - 409 EP - 433 PG - 25 SN - 0324-6329 DO - 10.28974/idojaras.2019.4.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31042664 ID - 31042664 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund [K-120605, K-129162]; AGRARKLIMA2 project [VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034]; European Regional Development FundEuropean Union (EU); Hungarian Government [GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028]; EEA Grant HU04 Adaptation to Climate Change Programme [EEA-C13-10]; European CommissionEuropean Commission Joint Research Centre Funding text: Research leading to this paper was supported by the following sources: the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Fund under grants K-120605 and K-129162, the AGRARKLIMA2 project (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034), the European Regional Development Fund and the Hungarian Government (GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028), and the EEA Grant HU04 Adaptation to Climate Change Programme (EEA-C13-10). We acknowledge the E-OBS dataset from the EU-FP6 project ENSEMBLES (http://ensembles-eu.metoffice.com) and the data providers in the ECA&D project (http://www.ecad.eu). The CARPATCLIM Database used in this study was compiled with the support of the European Commission in JRC in 2013. AB - The horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs) is still too coarse to evaluate regional climatic differences, therefore, to analyze regional environmental changes, it is essential to downscale the GCM simulation results. One of the methods widely and most often used for this purpose is dynamical downscaling. In the present paper we examine the ability of a specific global (HadGEM2-ES) and a specific regional climate model (RegCM) to describe present climatic conditions in different geographical areas within the Med-CORDEX domain. Our main goal with this validation is to inform researchers, who are planning to complete climate change impact studies about the major characteristics of the simulation outputs, serving as important input in such studies. So we analyzed annual and seasonal mean fields, mean error fields relative to the reference measurements, and selected climate indices. On the basis of the results, dynamical downscaling generally cools the HadGEM results, which depends on the distance from the ocean, and orography. A clear improvement can be recognized in the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of temperature indices when using finer resolution. Moreover, dynamical downscaling with higher resolution often increases the precipitation in mountains. Furthermore, in order to quantify the potential added value of RegCM simulations, a complex measure was introduced to take into account both the magnitude and spatial extent of bias. The analysis shows a general improvement in the cold-related indices in Central Europe and all temperature-related climate indices in Western Europe. The influence of model resolution is usually so strong, that it results in the underestimation of precipitation indices changing into overestimation and vice versa. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Mesterházy, Ildikó AU - Mészáros, Róbert AU - Pongrácz, Rita AU - Bodor-Pesti, Péter AU - Ladányi, Márta TI - The analysis of climatic indicators using different growing season calculation methods – an application to grapevine grown in Hungary JF - IDŐJÁRÁS / QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE HUNGARIAN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE J2 - IDŐJÁRÁS VL - 122 PY - 2018 IS - 3 SP - 217 EP - 235 PG - 19 SN - 0324-6329 DO - 10.28974/idojaras.2018.3.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3415694 ID - 3415694 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: OTKA [K109109, K109361]; EU FP6 integrated program [505539]; Agrarklima2 project [VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034]; European Union; European Social Fund [TAMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0003, TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013]; Szechenyi 2020 programme; European Regional Development Fund; Hungarian Government [GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028]; [OTKA K-78125]\n Funding text: Simulation of the PRECIS regional climate model was supported by grant OTKA K-78125. The authors are grateful for Ildiko Pieczka (Eotvos Lorand University, Dpt. of Meteorology) for providing bias-corrected model outputs. The RegCM and ALADIN simulations were developed within the ENSEMBLES project (505539) which was funded by the EU FP6 integrated program. The E-OBS database was provided by the ENSEMBLES and ECA&D projects. This work has been supported by OTKA grants K109109 and K109361, and also by the Agrarklima2 project (VKSZ_12-1-2013-0034). The research was supported by the European Union and the European Social Fund (TAMOP-4.2.1/B-09/1/KMR-2010-0003, FuturICT.hu grant no.: TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013), and by the Szechenyi 2020 programme, the European Regional Development Fund and the Hungarian Government (GINOP-2.3.2-15-2016-00028). We would also like to thank Peter Raffai for his valuable help with the English revision.\n Department of Biometrics and Agricultural Informatics, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Budapest, H-1118, Hungary Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Excellence Center, Faculty of Science, Eötvös Loránd University, Brunszvik u. 2, Martonvásár, H-2462, Hungary Department of Viticulture, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Budapest, H-1118, Hungary Export Date: 3 December 2018 Correspondence Address: Mesterházy, I.; Department of Biometrics and Agricultural Informatics, Szent István University, Villányi út 29-43, Hungary; email: Mesterhazy.Ildiko@kertk.szie.hu AB - The precise knowledge of the beginning and the end of the growing season is necessary for the calculation of climatic indicators with evident effect on grapevine production. The aim of this study is to develop suitable methods on the basis of thermal conditions that can be used for calculation of the beginning, the end, and the length of the growing season for every single year. The two most accurate methods (5mid' and 'int') are selected using the root-mean-square error compared to the reference growing season values based on averaging the daily mean temperature for several decades. In case of the `5mid' method, the beginning (or the end) is the middle day of the first (or last) 5-day period with temperature not less than 10 degrees C. In case of the 'int' method, the beginning (or the end) of the growing season is the day after March 15 (or September 15), when the smoothed series of daily temperature using the monthly average temperatures of March and April (or September and October) exceeds 10 degrees C (or falls below 10 degrees C). As a next step, several climatic indicators (e.g., Huglin index and hydrothermal coefficient) are calculated for Hungary for three time periods (1961-1990, 2021-2050, and 2071-2100*) using the '5mid' and 'int' methods. For this purpose, the bias-corrected daily mean, minimum, and maximum temperature and daily precipitation outputs of three different regional climate models (RegCM, ALADIN, and PRECIS) are used. Extreme temperature and precipitation indices are also evaluated as they determine the risk of grapevine production. The spatial distributions of the indicators are presented on maps. We compare the indicators for the past and for the future using one-way completely randomized robust ANOVA (analysis of variance). Results suggest that changes of temperature conditions in the 21st century will favor the production of red grapevine and late-ripening cultivars. Furthermore, drought seasons will be longer and extreme high summer temperatures will become more frequent, which are clearly considered as high risk factors in grapevine production. Besides the negative effects, the risk of winter frost damage is expected to decrease, which is evidently a favorable change in terms of grapevine production. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Belda, M AU - Skalak, P AU - Farda, A AU - Halenka, T AU - Deque, M AU - Csima, G AU - Bartholy, Judit AU - Torma, Csaba AU - Boroneant, C AU - Caian, M AU - Spiridonov, V TI - CECILIA Regional Climate Simulations for Future Climate: Analysis of Climate Change Signal JF - ADVANCES IN METEOROLOGY J2 - ADV METEOROL PY - 2015 PG - 13 SN - 1687-9317 DO - 10.1155/2015/354727 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3393110 ID - 3393110 N1 - Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University in Prague, Prague, 18200, Czech Republic Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague, 14306, Czech Republic Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Science of the Czech Republic, Brno, 60300, Czech Republic National Centre for Meteorological Research, Météo France, Toulouse, 31057, France Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest, 1525, Hungary Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, 1518, Hungary Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics, Trieste, 34151, Italy Centre for Climate Change, Rovira i Virgili University, Tarragona, 43500, Spain Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 60176, Sweden National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology, Sofia, 1784, Bulgaria Cited By :5 Export Date: 2 September 2019 Correspondence Address: Belda, M.; Department of Meteorology and Environment Protection, Charles University in PragueCzech Republic AB - Regional climate models (RCMs) are important tools used for downscaling climate simulations from global scale models. In project CECILIA, two RCMs were used to provide climate change information for regions of Central and Eastern Europe. Models RegCM and ALADIN-Climate were employed in downscaling global simulations from ECHAM5 and ARPEGE-CLIMAT under IPCC A1B emission scenario in periods 2021-2050 and 2071-2100. Climate change signal present in these simulations is consistent with respective driving data, showing similar large-scale features: warming between 0 and 3 degrees C in the first period and 2 and 5 degrees C in the second period with the least warming in northwestern part of the domain increasing in the southeastern direction and small precipitation changes within range of +1 to -1 mm/day. Regional features are amplified by the RCMs, more so in case of the ALADIN family of models. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Spinoni, J AU - Szalai, S AU - Szentimrey, Tamás AU - Lakatos, Mónika AU - Konkolyné Bihari, Zita AU - Nagy, A AU - Németh, Ákos AU - Kovács, T AU - Mihic, D AU - Dacic, M AU - Petrovic, P AU - Kržič, A AU - Hiebl, J AU - Auer, I AU - Milkovic, J AU - Štepánek, P AU - Zahradnícek, P AU - Kilar, P AU - Limanowka, D AU - Pyrc, R AU - Cheval, S AU - Birsan, M -V AU - Dumitrescu, A AU - Deak, G AU - Matei, M AU - Antolovic, I AU - Nejedlík, P AU - Štastný, P AU - Kajaba, P AU - Bochnícek, O AU - Galo, D AU - Mikulová, K AU - Nabyvanets, Y AU - Skrynyk, O AU - Krakovska, S AU - Gnatiuk, N AU - Tolasz, R AU - Antofie, T AU - Vogt, J TI - Climate of the Carpathian Region in the period 1961–2010: climatologies and trends of 10 variables JF - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY J2 - INT J CLIMATOL VL - 35 PY - 2015 IS - 7 SP - 1322 EP - 1344 PG - 23 SN - 0899-8418 DO - 10.1002/joc.4059 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3347235 ID - 3347235 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Pongrácz, Rita AU - Bartholy, Judit AU - Szabó, P AU - Gelybó, Györgyi TI - A comparison of observed trends and simulated changes in extreme climate indices in the Carpathian basin by the end of this century JF - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF GLOBAL WARMING J2 - INT J GLOBAL WARMING VL - 1 PY - 2009 IS - 1-2 SP - 336 EP - 355 PG - 20 SN - 1758-2083 DO - 10.1504/IJGW.2009.027097 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/141246 ID - 141246 N1 - WoS:hiba:000207911200020 2020-09-03 17:00 cím nem egyezik LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CHAP AU - Pongrácz, Rita AU - Bartholy, Judit AU - Gelybó, Györgyi AU - Szabó, P TI - Detected and expected trends of extreme climate indices for the Carpathian basin T2 - BIOCLIMATOLOGY AND NATURAL HAZARDS PB - Springer Netherlands CY - [s.l.] SN - 9781402088759 PY - 2009 SP - 15 EP - 28 PG - 14 DO - 10.1007/978-1-4020-8876-6_2 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/141250 ID - 141250 LA - English DB - MTMT ER -