TY - JOUR AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Topál, Dániel AU - Herein, Mátyás TI - On the time evolution of the Arctic Oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach JF - JOURNAL OF CLIMATE J2 - J CLIMATE VL - 33 PY - 2020 IS - 8 SP - 3107 EP - 3124 PG - 18 SN - 0894-8755 DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0004.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31148372 ID - 31148372 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology [uNKP-18-4, uNKP-19-1]; Ministry of Human Capacities [NTP-NFTo-18]; Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of Sciences; National Research, Development and Innovation Office-NKFIH [PD-121305, PD-132709, PD-124272, FK-124256, K-125171] Funding text: We benefited from useful comments and suggestions by T. Bodai, G. Drotos, M. Vincze, T. Tel, and the two anonymous referees. We thank G. Drotos for the inspiring idea and hints on the derivation in the . We are thankful for the language check by I. Baxter. This paper was supported by the uNKP-18-4 (T.H.) and uNKP-19-1 (D.T.) New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology and Grant NTP-NFTo-18 (D.T.) of the Ministry of Human Capacities, by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (T.H.), and by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office-NKFIH under Grants PD-121305 and PD-132709 (T.H.), PD-124272 (M.H.), FK-124256, and K-125171 (T.H., M.H.). D.T. is further grateful for the support from L. Solyom and Q. Ding. The authors are thankful to the developer group of MPI-GE for providing the MPI-GE ensembles. The authors also wish to thank the Climate Data Gateway at NCAR for providing access to the output of the CESM-LE. Funding Agency and Grant Number: New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology [uNKP-18-4, uNKP-19-1]; Ministry of Human Capacities [NTP-NFTo-18]; Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of Sciences; National Research, Development and Innovation Office-NKFIHNational Research, Development & Innovation Office (NRDIO) - Hungary [PD-121305, PD-132709, PD-124272, FK-124256, K-125171] Funding text: We benefited from useful comments and suggestions by T. Bodai, G. Drotos, M. Vincze, T. Tel, and the two anonymous referees. We thank G. Drotos for the inspiring idea and hints on the derivation in the . We are thankful for the language check by I. Baxter. This paper was supported by the uNKP-18-4 (T.H.) and uNKP-19-1 (D.T.) New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Innovation and Technology and Grant NTP-NFTo-18 (D.T.) of the Ministry of Human Capacities, by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (T.H.), and by the National Research, Development and Innovation Office-NKFIH under Grants PD-121305 and PD-132709 (T.H.), PD-124272 (M.H.), FK-124256, and K-125171 (T.H., M.H.). D.T. is further grateful for the support from L. Solyom and Q. Ding. The authors are thankful to the developer group of MPI-GE for providing the MPI-GE ensembles. The authors also wish to thank the Climate Data Gateway at NCAR for providing access to the output of the CESM-LE. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Tél, Tamás AU - Bódai, Tamás AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Kaszás, Bálint AU - Vincze, Miklós TI - The Theory of Parallel Climate Realizations A New Framework of Ensemble Methods in a Changing Climate: An Overview JF - JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS J2 - J STAT PHYS VL - 179 PY - 2020 IS - 5-6 SP - 1496 EP - 1530 PG - 35 SN - 0022-4715 DO - 10.1007/s10955-019-02445-7 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/30982542 ID - 30982542 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: Eotvos Lorand University (ELTE); Hungarian Research, Development and Innovation Office - NKFIH [K-125171, FK-124256, FK-125024, PD-121305, PD-124272]; Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of Sciences; New National Excellence Program of the Hungarian Ministry of Human Capacities [UNKP-18-2, UNKP-18-4]; Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Republic of Korea [IBS-R028-D1]; European Social Fund under CAIB grant Margalida Comas [PD/020/2018] Funding text: Open access funding provided by Eotvos Lorand University (ELTE). This paper was supported by the Hungarian Research, Development and Innovation Office - NKFIH under grants K-125171, FK-124256, FK-125024, and PD-121305 (T.H.), PD-124272 (M.H.), by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (T.H., M.V.), by the UNKP-18-2 (B.K.) and UNKP-18-4 (T.H., M.V.) grants of the New National Excellence Program of the Hungarian Ministry of Human Capacities, by the Institute for Basic Science (IBS), Republic of Korea, under IBS-R028-D1 (T.B.), and by the European Social Fund under CAIB grant PD/020/2018 Margalida Comas (G.D.). LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Baxter, I AU - Schweiger, A AU - Ding, Q AU - L’Heureux, M AU - Baxter, S AU - Wang, T AU - Zhang, Q AU - Harnos, K AU - Markle, B AU - Topál, Dániel AU - Lu, J TI - How tropical Pacific surface cooling contributed to accelerated sea ice melt from 2007 to 2012 as ice is thinned by anthropogenic forcing JF - JOURNAL OF CLIMATE J2 - J CLIMATE VL - 32 PY - 2019 IS - 24 SP - 8583 EP - 8602 PG - 20 SN - 0894-8755 DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0783.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/30828479 ID - 30828479 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Márfy, János AU - Tél, Tamás TI - The theory of parallel climate realizations as a new framework for teleconnection analysis JF - SCIENTIFIC REPORTS J2 - SCI REP VL - 7 PY - 2017 PG - 11 SN - 2045-2322 DO - 10.1038/srep44529 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3182389 ID - 3182389 N1 - MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary Cited By :9 Export Date: 28 November 2019 Correspondence Address: Drótos, G.; MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research GroupHungary; email: drotos@general.elte.hu MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary Cited By :9 Export Date: 2 December 2019 Correspondence Address: Drótos, G.; MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research GroupHungary; email: drotos@general.elte.hu Funding Agency and Grant Number: Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; Hungarian Science FoundationOrszagos Tudomanyos Kutatasi Alapprogramok (OTKA) [NK100296, OTKA PD-121305]; Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of SciencesHungarian Academy of Sciences Funding text: We benefited from useful comments by T.Bodai, F.Lunkeit, A.Varai, M.Vincze, and T.Weidinger. T.T. is grateful for support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This work was also supported by the Hungarian Science Foundation under Grants NK100296 and OTKA PD-121305, as well as by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Márfy, János AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Tél, Tamás TI - Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture JF - JOURNAL OF CLIMATE J2 - J CLIMATE VL - 29 PY - 2016 IS - 1 SP - 259 EP - 272 PG - 14 SN - 0894-8755 DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0353.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/2957595 ID - 2957595 N1 - Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Budapest, Hungary Institute for Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, MTA-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Budapest, Hungary Export Date: 4 April 2023 Correspondence Address: Drótos, G.; Institute for Theoretical Physics, Pázmány Péter seány 1/A, Hungary; email: drotos@general.elte.hu LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Bódai, Tamás AU - Tél, Tamás TI - Probabilistic Concepts in a Changing Climate: A Snapshot Attractor Picture JF - JOURNAL OF CLIMATE J2 - J CLIMATE VL - 28 PY - 2015 IS - 8 SP - 3275 EP - 3288 PG - 14 SN - 0894-8755 DO - 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00459.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/2892337 ID - 2892337 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: NAMASTE project (under the ERC) [257106]; Alexander von Humboldt FoundationAlexander von Humboldt Foundation; European UnionEuropean Commission; European Social Fund through project FuturICT.hu [TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013]; Hungarian Science FoundationOrszagos Tudomanyos Kutatasi Alapprogramok (OTKA) [NK100296] Funding text: Valuable comments by D. Berenyi, U. Feudel, C. Franzke, M. Ghil, G. Halasz, T. Haszpra, M. Herein, I. M. Janosi, F. Lunkeit, J. Marfy, Z. Racz, and M. Vincze are gratefully acknowledged. T. B. is grateful for support from the NAMASTE project led by Valerio Lucarini (under the ERC Grant 257106), and T. T. for support from the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation. This work was partially supported by the European Union and the European Social Fund through project FuturICT.hu (Grant TAMOP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0013). This work was also supported by the Hungarian Science Foundation under Grant NK100296. AB - The authors argue that the concept of snapshot attractors and of their natural probability distributions are the only available tools by means of which mathematically sound statements can be made about averages, variances, etc., for a given time instant in a changing climate. A basic advantage of the snapshot approach, which relies on the use of an ensemble, is that the natural distribution and thus any statistics based on it are independent of the particular ensemble used, provided it is initiated in the past earlier than a convergence time. To illustrate these concepts, a tutorial presentation is given within the framework of a low-order model in which the temperature contrast parameter over a hemisphere decreases linearly in time. Furthermore, the averages and variances obtained from the snapshot attractor approach are demonstrated to strongly differ from the traditional 30-yr temporal averages and variances taken along single realizations. The authors also claim that internal variability can be quantified by the natural distribution since it characterizes the chaotic motion represented by the snapshot attractor. This experience suggests that snapshot-attractor-based calculations might be appropriate to be evaluated in any large-scale climate model, and that the application of 30-yr temporal averages taken along single realizations should be complemented with this more appealing tool for the characterization of climate changes, which seems to be practically feasible with moderate ensemble sizes. LA - English DB - MTMT ER -