@article{MTMT:31148372,
	title = {On the time evolution of the Arctic Oscillation and related wintertime phenomena under different forcing scenarios in an ensemble approach},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31148372},
	author = {Haszpra, Tímea and Topál, Dániel and Herein, Mátyás},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0004.1},
	journal-iso = {J CLIMATE},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF CLIMATE},
	volume = {33},
	unique-id = {31148372},
	issn = {0894-8755},
	year = {2020},
	eissn = {1520-0442},
	pages = {3107-3124},
	orcid-numbers = {Haszpra, Tímea/0000-0001-6716-071X; Herein, Mátyás/0000-0003-1903-3761}
}

@article{MTMT:30982542,
	title = {The Theory of Parallel Climate Realizations A New Framework of Ensemble Methods in a Changing Climate: An Overview},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/30982542},
	author = {Tél, Tamás and Bódai, Tamás and Drótos, Gábor and Haszpra, Tímea and Herein, Mátyás and Kaszás, Bálint and Vincze, Miklós},
	doi = {10.1007/s10955-019-02445-7},
	journal-iso = {J STAT PHYS},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF STATISTICAL PHYSICS},
	volume = {179},
	unique-id = {30982542},
	issn = {0022-4715},
	year = {2020},
	eissn = {1572-9613},
	pages = {1496-1530},
	orcid-numbers = {Tél, Tamás/0000-0003-0983-0804; Haszpra, Tímea/0000-0001-6716-071X; Herein, Mátyás/0000-0003-1903-3761}
}

@article{MTMT:30828479,
	title = {How tropical Pacific surface cooling contributed to accelerated sea ice melt from 2007 to 2012 as ice is thinned by anthropogenic forcing},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/30828479},
	author = {Baxter, I and Schweiger, A and Ding, Q and L’Heureux, M and Baxter, S and Wang, T and Zhang, Q and Harnos, K and Markle, B and Topál, Dániel and Lu, J},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0783.1},
	journal-iso = {J CLIMATE},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF CLIMATE},
	volume = {32},
	unique-id = {30828479},
	issn = {0894-8755},
	year = {2019},
	eissn = {1520-0442},
	pages = {8583-8602}
}

@article{MTMT:3182389,
	title = {The theory of parallel climate realizations as a new framework for teleconnection analysis},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3182389},
	author = {Herein, Mátyás and Drótos, Gábor and Haszpra, Tímea and Márfy, János and Tél, Tamás},
	doi = {10.1038/srep44529},
	journal-iso = {SCI REP},
	journal = {SCIENTIFIC REPORTS},
	volume = {7},
	unique-id = {3182389},
	issn = {2045-2322},
	year = {2017},
	eissn = {2045-2322},
	orcid-numbers = {Herein, Mátyás/0000-0003-1903-3761; Haszpra, Tímea/0000-0001-6716-071X; Tél, Tamás/0000-0003-0983-0804}
}

@article{MTMT:2957595,
	title = {Probabilistic concepts in intermediate-complexity climate models: A snapshot attractor picture},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/2957595},
	author = {Herein, Mátyás and Márfy, János and Drótos, Gábor and Tél, Tamás},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0353.1},
	journal-iso = {J CLIMATE},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF CLIMATE},
	volume = {29},
	unique-id = {2957595},
	issn = {0894-8755},
	year = {2016},
	eissn = {1520-0442},
	pages = {259-272},
	orcid-numbers = {Herein, Mátyás/0000-0003-1903-3761; Tél, Tamás/0000-0003-0983-0804}
}

@article{MTMT:2892337,
	title = {Probabilistic Concepts in a Changing Climate: A Snapshot Attractor Picture},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/2892337},
	author = {Drótos, Gábor and Bódai, Tamás and Tél, Tamás},
	doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00459.1},
	journal-iso = {J CLIMATE},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF CLIMATE},
	volume = {28},
	unique-id = {2892337},
	issn = {0894-8755},
	abstract = {The authors argue that the concept of snapshot attractors and of their natural probability distributions are the only available tools by means of which mathematically sound statements can be made about averages, variances, etc., for a given time instant in a changing climate. A basic advantage of the snapshot approach, which relies on the use of an ensemble, is that the natural distribution and thus any statistics based on it are independent of the particular ensemble used, provided it is initiated in the past earlier than a convergence time. To illustrate these concepts, a tutorial presentation is given within the framework of a low-order model in which the temperature contrast parameter over a hemisphere decreases linearly in time. Furthermore, the averages and variances obtained from the snapshot attractor approach are demonstrated to strongly differ from the traditional 30-yr temporal averages and variances taken along single realizations. The authors also claim that internal variability can be quantified by the natural distribution since it characterizes the chaotic motion represented by the snapshot attractor. This experience suggests that snapshot-attractor-based calculations might be appropriate to be evaluated in any large-scale climate model, and that the application of 30-yr temporal averages taken along single realizations should be complemented with this more appealing tool for the characterization of climate changes, which seems to be practically feasible with moderate ensemble sizes.},
	year = {2015},
	eissn = {1520-0442},
	pages = {3275-3288},
	orcid-numbers = {Tél, Tamás/0000-0003-0983-0804}
}