@article{MTMT:34854898,
	title = {„Egészségpart” mobil nyári szűrő- és egészség-edukációs programsorozat: a 2021–2023. évek között megvalósult programok értékelése},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34854898},
	author = {Pénzes, Melinda and Mikesy, Gergely and Kenesei-Kalló, Andrea Dóra and Jóni, András Dániel and Lengyel, Lívia and Bertókné Tamás, Renáta and Árváné Egri, Csilla and Gál, Veronika and Joó, Tamás},
	doi = {10.53020/IME-2024-106},
	journal-iso = {IME},
	journal = {IME},
	volume = {23},
	unique-id = {34854898},
	issn = {1588-6387},
	abstract = {Számos országban az ún. mobil egészségklinikák egyrészt az egészségműveltséget javító, figyelemfelhívó és egészségedukációs mozgó platformként működnek, másrészt a daganatok- és más nem fertőző betegségek szűrésében is közreműködnek. A 2021-ben indított „Egészségpart” programsorozatunk célja a Balatonnál nyaraló, elsősorban munkaképes korú, magyar felnőtt lakosság számára ingyenes szűrések, életmód-tanácsadás és egészség-edukáció biztosítása a betegségek korai felismerése és az egészségműveltség javítása érdekében.Tanulmányunk célja a 2021–2023. évek nyári hónapjaiban, Balaton-parti településeken megvalósult, „Helybe visszük a szűrővizsgálatokat” szűrőprogramhoz kapcsolódó „Egészségpart” programsorozat értékelése bemeneti- (partnerség, humánerőforrás), folyamat- (aktivitások – szűrés és egészség-edukáció) és kimeneti (résztvevők száma és szociodemográfiai jellemzői) indikátorok alapján, leíró statisztikai elemzéssel.A három év során 13 „Egészségpart” nap valósult meg, átlagosan napi 18–31 humánerőforrás jelenléte és bővülő szakmai partnerségek mellett. A programaktivitások közül nem mindegyik volt jelen mindhárom évben, de összességében a szűrő- és egészség-edukációs aktivitások száma évről évre bővült (maximum 15, illetve 8 aktivitás). A szociodemográfiai adatokkal regisztrált résztvevők száma n=727–906 között alakult, átlagéletkoruk kissé 50 év feletti, a nők részvételi aránya 60% körüli volt, legnagyobb arányban minden évben a 45–64 éves korcsoport vett részt. A kiindulási évhez képest jelentősen emelkedett a >65 évesek érdeklődése a program iránt. A Balaton-környéki lakosok részvételi aránya az első évhez képest (27%) jelentősen megemelkedett a harmadik évre (53%).Az „Egészségpart” program komplex értékelése elengedhetetlen annak érdekében, hogy a későbbiekben fejlesztendő területek a programtervezésben és -megvalósításban azonosíthatókká váljanak. A résztvevők esetenként változó összetételére és igényeire dinamikus reagálás szükséges, valamint elengedhetetlen a szakmai partnerségek akár évről-évre történő felülvizsgálata és humánerőforrás allokálásának átgondolása.},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1789-9974},
	pages = {39-48},
	orcid-numbers = {Pénzes, Melinda/0000-0001-7396-4028; Mikesy, Gergely/0009-0009-7077-4806; Kenesei-Kalló, Andrea Dóra/0009-0007-9229-1683; Jóni, András Dániel/0000-0002-9397-487X; Lengyel, Lívia/0000-0001-7464-1829; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125}
}

@article{MTMT:34803496,
	title = {Global incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021. a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34803496},
	author = {Ferrari, Alize J and Santomauro, Damian Francesco and Aali, Amirali and Abate, Yohannes Habtegiorgis and Abbafati, Cristiana and Abbastabar, Hedayat and Abd ElHafeez, Samar and Abdelmasseh, Michael and Abd-Elsalam, Sherief and Abdollahi, Arash and Abdullahi, Auwal and Abegaz, Kedir Hussein and Abeldaño Zuñiga, Roberto Ariel and Aboagye, Richard Gyan and Abolhassani, Hassan and Abreu, Lucas Guimarães and Abualruz, Hasan and Abu-Gharbieh, Eman and Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen ME and Ackerman, Ilana N and Addo, Isaac Yeboah and Addolorato, Giovanni and Adebiyi, Akindele Olupelumi and Adepoju, Abiola Victor and Adewuyi, Habeeb Omoponle and Afyouni, Shadi and Afzal, Saira and Afzal, Sina and Agodi, Antonella and Ahmad, Aqeel and Ahmad, Danish and Ahmad, Firdos and Ahmad, Shahzaib and Ahmed, Ali and Ahmed, Luai A and Ahmed, Muktar Beshir and Ajami, Marjan and Akinosoglou, Karolina and Akkaif, Mohammed Ahmed and Al Hasan, Syed Mahfuz and Alalalmeh, Samer O and Al-Aly, Ziyad and Albashtawy, Mohammed and Aldridge, Robert W and Alemu, Meseret Desalegn and Alemu, Yihun Mulugeta and Alene, Kefyalew Addis and Al-Gheethi, Adel Ali Saeed and Alharrasi, Maryam and Alhassan, Robert Kaba and Ali, Mohammed Usman and Ali, Rafat and Ali, Syed Shujait Shujait and Alif, Sheikh Mohammad and Aljunid, Syed Mohamed and Al-Marwani, Sabah and Almazan, Joseph Uy and Alomari, Mahmoud A and Al-Omari, Basem and Altaany, Zaid and Alvis-Guzman, Nelson and Alvis-Zakzuk, Nelson J and Alwafi, Hassan and Al-Wardat, Mohammad Sami and Al-Worafi, Yaser Mohammed and Aly, Safwat and Alzoubi, Karem H and Amare, Azmeraw T and Amegbor, Prince M and Ameyaw, Edward Kwabena and Amin, Tarek Tawfik and Amindarolzarbi, Alireza and Amiri, Sohrab and Amugsi, Dickson A and Ancuceanu, Robert and Anderlini, Deanna and Anderson, David B and Andrade, Pedro Prata and Andrei, Catalina Liliana and Ansari, Hossein and Antony, Catherine M and Anwar, Saleha and Anwar, Sumadi Lukman and Anwer, Razique and Anyanwu, Philip Emeka and Arab, Juan Pablo and Arabloo, Jalal and Arafat, Mosab and Araki, Daniel T and Aravkin, Aleksandr Y and Arkew, Mesay and Armocida, Benedetta and Arndt, Michael Benjamin and Arooj, Mahwish and Artamonov, Anton A and Aruleba, Raphael Taiwo and Arumugam, Ashokan and Ashbaugh, Charlie and Ashemo, Mubarek Yesse and Ashraf, Muhammad and Asika, Marvellous O and Askari, Elaheh and Astell-Burt, Thomas and Athari, Seyyed Shamsadin and Atorkey, Prince and Atout, Maha Moh'd Wahbi and Atreya, Alok and Aujayeb, Avinash and Ausloos, Marcel and Avan, Abolfazl and Awotidebe, Adedapo Wasiu and Awuviry-Newton, Kofi and Ayala Quintanilla, Beatriz Paulina and Ayuso-Mateos, Jose L and Azadnajafabad, Sina and Azevedo, Rui M S and Babu, Abraham Samuel and Badar, Muhammad and Badiye, Ashish D and Baghdadi, Soroush and Bagheri, Nasser and Bah, Sulaiman and Bai, Ruhai and Baker, Jennifer L and Bakkannavar, Shankar M and Bako, Abdulaziz T and Balakrishnan, Senthilkumar and Bam, Kiran and Banik, Palash Chandra and Barchitta, Martina and Bardhan, Mainak and Bardideh, Erfan and Barker-Collo, Suzanne Lyn and Barqawi, Hiba Jawdat and Barrow, Amadou and Barteit, Sandra and Barua, Lingkan and Bashiri Aliabadi, Somaye and Basiru, Afisu and Basu, Sanjay and Basu, Saurav and Bathini, Prapthi Persis and Batra, Kavita and Baune, Bernhard T and Bayileyegn, Nebiyou Simegnew and Behnam, Babak and Behnoush, Amir Hossein and Beiranvand, Maryam and Bejarano Ramirez, Diana Fernanda and Bell, Michelle L and Bello, Olorunjuwon Omolaja and Beloukas, Apostolos and Bensenor, Isabela M and Berezvai, Zombor and Bernabe, Eduardo and Bernstein, Robert S and Bettencourt, Paulo J G and Bhagavathula, Akshaya Srikanth and Bhala, Neeraj and Bhandari, Dinesh and Bhargava, Ashish and Bhaskar, Sonu and Bhat, Vivek and Bhatti, Gurjit Kaur and Bhatti, Jasvinder Singh and Bhatti, Manpreet S and Bhatti, Rajbir and Bhutta, Zulfiqar A and Bikbov, Boris and Bishai, Jessica Devin and Bisignano, Catherine and Bitra, Veera R and Bjørge, Tone and Bodolica, Virginia and Bodunrin, Aadam Olalekan and Bogale, Eyob Ketema and Bonakdar Hashemi, Milad and Bonny, Aime and Bora Basara, Berrak and Borhany, Hamed and Boxe, Christopher and Brady, Oliver J and Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi and Braithwaite, Dejana and Brant, Luisa C and Brauer, Michael and Breitner, Susanne and Brenner, Hermann and Brown, Julie and Brugha, Traolach and Bulamu, Norma B and Buonsenso, Danilo and Burkart, Katrin and Burns, Richard A and Busse, Reinhard and Bustanji, Yasser and Butt, Zahid A and Byun, Justin and Caetano dos Santos, Florentino Luciano and Calina, Daniela and Cámera, Luis Alberto and Campos-Nonato, Ismael R and Cao, Chao and Capodici, Angelo and Carr, Sinclair and Carreras, Giulia and Carugno, Andrea and Carvalho, Márcia and Castaldelli-Maia, Joao Mauricio and Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A and Castelpietra, Giulio and Catapano, Alberico L and Cattaruzza, Maria Sofia and Caye, Arthur and Cegolon, Luca and Cembranel, Francieli and Cenderadewi, Muthia and Cerin, Ester and Chakraborty, Promit Ananyo and Chan, Jeffrey Shi Kai and Chan, Raymond N C and Chandika, Rama Mohan and Chandrasekar, Eeshwar K and Charalampous, Periklis and Chattu, Vijay Kumar and Chatzimavridou-Grigoriadou, Victoria and Chen, Angela W and Chen, An-Tian and Chen, Catherine S and Chen, Haowei and Chen, Nathalie M and Cheng, Esther T W and Chimed-Ochir, Odgerel and Chimoriya, Ritesh and Ching, Patrick R and Cho, William C S and Choi, Sungchul and Chong, Bryan and Chong, Yuen Yu and Choudhari, Sonali Gajanan and Chowdhury, Rajiv and Christensen, Steffan Wittrup McPhee and Chu, Dinh-Toi and Chukwu, Isaac Sunday and Chung, Eric and Chung, Eunice and Chutiyami, Muhammad and Claassens, Mareli M and Cogen, Rebecca M and Columbus, Alyssa and Conde, Joao and Cortesi, Paolo Angelo and Cousin, Ewerton and Criqui, Michael H and Cruz-Martins, Natália and Dadras, Omid and Dai, Siyu and Dai, Xiaochen and Dai, Zhaoli and Dalaba, Maxwell Ayindenaba and Damiani, Giovanni and Das, Jai K and Das, Saswati and Dashti, Mohsen and Dávila-Cervantes, Claudio Alberto and Davletov, Kairat and De Leo, Diego and Debele, Aklilu Tamire and Debopadhaya, Shayom and DeCleene, Nicole K and Deeba, Farah and Degenhardt, Louisa and Del Bo', Cristian and Delgado-Enciso, Ivan and Demetriades, Andreas K and Denova-Gutiérrez, Edgar and Dervenis, Nikolaos and Desai, Hardik Dineshbhai and Desai, Rupak and Deuba, Keshab and Dhama, Kuldeep and Dharmaratne, Samath Dhamminda and Dhingra, Sameer and Dias da Silva, Diana and Diaz, Daniel and Diaz, Luis Antonio and Diaz, Michael J and Dima, Adriana and Ding, Delaney D and Dirac, M Ashworth and Do, Thao Huynh Phuong and do Prado, Camila Bruneli and Dohare, Sushil and Dominguez, Regina-Mae Villanueva and Dong, Wanyue and Dongarwar, Deepa and D'Oria, Mario and Dorsey, E Ray and Doshmangir, Leila and Dowou, Robert Kokou and Driscoll, Tim Robert and Dsouza, Haneil Larson and Dsouza, Viola and Dube, John and Dumith, Samuel C and Duncan, Bruce B and Duraes, Andre Rodrigues and Duraisamy, Senbagam and Durojaiye, Oyewole Christopher and Dzianach, Paulina Agnieszka and Dziedzic, Arkadiusz Marian and Eboreime, Ejemai and Ebrahimi, Alireza and Edinur, Hisham Atan and Edvardsson, David and Eikemo, Terje Andreas and Eini, Ebrahim and Ekholuenetale, Michael and Ekundayo, Temitope Cyrus and El Sayed, Iman and El Tantawi, Maha and Elbarazi, Iffat and Elemam, Noha Mousaad and ElGohary, Ghada Metwally Tawfik and Elhadi, Muhammed and Elmeligy, Omar Abdelsadek Abdou and ELNahas, Gihan and Elshaer, Mohammed and Elsohaby, Ibrahim and Engelbert Bain, Luchuo and Erkhembayar, Ryenchindorj and Eshrati, Babak and Estep, Kara and Fabin, Natalia and Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis and Falzone, Luca and Fareed, Mohammad and Farinha, Carla Sofia e Sá and Faris, MoezAlIslam Ezzat Mahmoud and Faro, Andre and Farrokhi, Pegah and Fatehizadeh, Ali and Fauk, Nelsensius Klau and Feigin, Valery L and Feng, Xiaoqi and Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad and Feroze, Abdullah Hamid and Ferreira, Nuno and Ferreira, Paulo H and Fischer, Florian and Flavel, Joanne and Flood, David and Flor, Luisa S and Foigt, Nataliya A and Folayan, Morenike Oluwatoyin and Force, Lisa M and Fortuna, Daniela and Foschi, Matteo and Franklin, Richard Charles and Freitas, Alberto and Fukumoto, Takeshi and Furtado, João M and Gaal, Peter Andras and Gadanya, Muktar A and Gaidhane, Abhay Motiramji and Gaihre, Santosh and Galali, Yaseen and Ganbat, Mandukhai and Gandhi, Aravind P and Ganesan, Balasankar and Ganie, Mohd Ashraf and Ganiyani, Mohammad Arfat and Gardner, William M and Gebi, Tilaye Gebru and Gebregergis, Miglas W and Gebrehiwot, Mesfin and Gebremariam, Tesfay B B and Gebremeskel, Teferi Gebru and Gela, Yibeltal Yismaw and Georgescu, Simona Roxana and Getachew Obsa, Abera and Gething, Peter W and Getie, Molla and Ghadiri, Keyghobad and Ghadirian, Fataneh and Ghailan, Khalid Yaser and Ghajar, Alireza and Ghasemi, MohammadReza and Ghasempour Dabaghi, Ghazal and Ghasemzadeh, Afsaneh and Ghazy, Ramy Mohamed and Gholamrezanezhad, Ali and Ghorbani, Mahsa and Ghotbi, Elena and Gibson, Ruth Margaret and Gill, Tiffany K and Ginindza, Themba G and Girmay, Alem and Glasbey, James C and Göbölös, Laszlo and Godinho, Myron Anthony and Goharinezhad, Salime and Goldust, Mohamad and Golechha, Mahaveer and Goleij, Pouya and Gona, Philimon N and Gorini, Giuseppe and Goulart, Alessandra C and Grada, Ayman and Grivna, Michal and Guan, Shi-Yang and Guarducci, Giovanni and Gubari, Mohammed Ibrahim Mohialdeen and Gudeta, Mesay Dechasa and Guha, Avirup and Guicciardi, Stefano and Gulati, Snigdha and Gulisashvili, David and Gunawardane, Damitha Asanga and Guo, Cui and Gupta, Anish Kumar and Gupta, Bhawna and Gupta, Ishita and Gupta, Mohak and Gupta, Rajeev and Gupta, Veer Bala and Gupta, Vijai Kumar and Gupta, Vivek Kumar and Gutiérrez, Reyna Alma and Habibzadeh, Farrokh and Habibzadeh, Parham and Haddadi, Rasool and Hadi, Najah R and Haep, Nils and Hafezi-Nejad, Nima and Hafiz, Abdul and Hagins, Hailey and Halboub, Esam S and Halimi, Aram and Haller, Sebastian and Halwani, Rabih and Hamilton, Erin B and Hankey, Graeme J and Hannan, Md Abdul and Haque, Md Nuruzzaman and Harapan, Harapan and Haro, Josep Maria and Hartvigsen, Jan and Hasaballah, Ahmed I and Hasan, Ikramul and Hasanian, Mohammad and Hasnain, Md Saquib and Hassan, Amr and Haubold, Johannes and Havmoeller, Rasmus J and Hay, Simon I and Hayat, Khezar and Hebert, Jeffrey J and Hegazi, Omar E and Heidari, Golnaz and Helfer, Bartosz and Hemmati, Mehdi and Hendrie, Delia and Henson, Claire A and Hezam, Kamal and Hiraike, Yuta and Hoan, Nguyen Quoc and Holla, Ramesh and Hon, Julia and Hossain, Md Mahbub and Hosseinzadeh, Hassan and Hosseinzadeh, Mehdi and Hostiuc, Mihaela and Hostiuc, Sorin and Hsu, Johnathan M and Huang, Junjie and Hugo, Fernando N and Hushmandi, Kiavash and Hussain, Javid and Hussein, Nawfal R and Huynh, Chantal K and Huynh, Hong-Han and Hwang, Bing-Fang and Iannucci, Vincent C and Ihler, Audrey L and Ikiroma, Adalia I and Ikuta, Kevin S and Ilesanmi, Olayinka Stephen and Ilic, Irena M and Ilic, Milena D and Imam, Mohammad Tarique and Immurana, Mustapha and Irham, Lalu Muhammad and Islam, Md Rabiul and Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful and Islami, Farhad and Ismail, Faisal and Ismail, Nahlah Elkudssiah and Isola, Gaetano and Iwagami, Masao and Iwu, Chidozie C D and Iyer, Mahalaxmi and Jaafari, Jalil and Jacobsen, Kathryn H and Jadidi-Niaragh, Farhad and Jafarinia, Morteza and Jaggi, Khushleen and Jahankhani, Kasra and Jahanmehr, Nader and Jahrami, Haitham and Jain, Akhil and Jain, Nityanand and Jairoun, Ammar Abdulrahman and Jaiswal, Abhishek and Jakovljevic, Mihajlo and Jatau, Abubakar Ibrahim and Javadov, Sabzali and Javaheri, Tahereh and Jayapal, Sathish Kumar and Jayaram, Shubha and Jee, Sun Ha and Jeganathan, Jayakumar and Jeyakumar, Angeline and Jha, Anil K and Jiang, Heng and Jin, Yinzi and Jonas, Jost B and Joseph, Abel and Joseph, Nitin and Joshua, Charity Ehimwenma and Jozwiak, Jacek Jerzy and Jürisson, Mikk and K, Vaishali and Kaambwa, Billingsley and Kabir, Ali and Kabir, Zubair and Kadashetti, Vidya and Kalani, Rizwan and Kalankesh, Leila R and Kaliyadan, Feroze and Kalra, Sanjay and Kamenov, Kaloyan and Kamyari, Naser and Kanagasabai, Thanigaivelan and Kandel, Himal and Kanmanthareddy, Arun R and Kanmodi, Kehinde Kazeem and Kantar, Rami S and Karaye, Ibraheem M and Karim, Asima and Karimi, Salah Eddin and Karimi, Yeganeh and Kasraei, Hengameh and Kassel, Molly B and Kauppila, Joonas H and Kawakami, Norito and Kayode, Gbenga A and Kazemi, Foad and Kazemian, Sina and Keikavoosi-Arani, Leila and Keller, Cathleen and Kempen, John H and Kerr, Jessica A and Keshtkar, Kamyab and Kesse-Guyot, Emmanuelle and Keykhaei, Mohammad and Khajuria, Himanshu and Khalaji, Amirmohammad and Khalid, Asaad and Khalid, Nauman and Khalilian, Alireza and Khamesipour, Faham and Khan, Asaduzzaman and Khan, Ikramullah and Khan, Maseer and Khan, Moien AB and Khanmohammadi, Shaghayegh and Khatab, Khaled and Khatami, Fatemeh and Khatatbeh, Moawiah Mohammad and Khater, Amir M and Khayat Kashani, Hamid Reza and Khidri, Feriha Fatima and Khodadoust, Elaheh and Khormali, Moein and Khorrami, Zahra and Kifle, Zemene Demelash and Kim, Min Seo and Kimokoti, Ruth W and Kisa, Adnan and Kisa, Sezer and Knudsen, Ann Kristin Skrindo and Kocarnik, Jonathan M and Kochhar, Sonali and Koh, Hyun Yong and Kolahi, Ali-Asghar and Kompani, Farzad and Koren, Gerbrand and Korzh, Oleksii and Kosen, Soewarta and Koulmane Laxminarayana, Sindhura Lakshmi and Krishan, Kewal and Krishna, Varun and Krishnamoorthy, Vijay and Kuate Defo, Barthelemy and Kuddus, Md Abdul and Kuddus, Mohammed and Kuitunen, Ilari and Kulkarni, Vishnutheertha and Kumar, Manasi and Kumar, Nithin and Kumar, Rakesh and Kurmi, Om P and Kusuma, Dian and Kyu, Hmwe Hmwe and La Vecchia, Carlo and Lacey, Ben and Ladan, Muhammad Awwal and Laflamme, Lucie and Lafranconi, Alessandra and Lahariya, Chandrakant and Lai, Daphne Teck Ching and Lal, Dharmesh Kumar and Lalloo, Ratilal and Lallukka, Tea and Lan, Qing and Lan, Tuo and Landires, Iván and Lanfranchi, Francesco and Langguth, Berthold and Laplante-Lévesque, Ariane and Larijani, Bagher and Larsson, Anders O and Lasrado, Savita and Lauriola, Paolo and Le, Huu-Hoai and Le, Long Khanh Dao and Le, Nhi Huu Hanh and Le, Trang Diep Thanh and Leasher, Janet L and Ledda, Caterina and Lee, Munjae and Lee, Paul H and Lee, Sang-woong and Lee, Seung Won and Lee, Wei-Chen and Lee, Yo Han and LeGrand, Kate E and Lenzi, Jacopo and Leong, Elvynna and Leung, Janni and Li, Ming-Chieh and Li, Wei and Li, Xiaopan and Li, Yichong and Li, Yongze and Lim, Lee-Ling and Lim, Stephen S and Lindstrom, Megan and Linn, Shai and Liu, Gang and Liu, Runben and Liu, Shiwei and Liu, Wei and Liu, Xiaofeng and Liu, Xuefeng and Llanaj, Erand and Lo, Chun-Han and López-Bueno, Rubén and Loreche, Arianna Maever and Lorenzovici, László and Lozano, Rafael and Lubinda, Jailos and Lucchetti, Giancarlo and Lunevicius, Raimundas and Lusk, Jay B and lv, hengliang and Ma, Zheng Feei and Machairas, Nikolaos and Madureira-Carvalho, Áurea M and Magaña Gómez, Javier A and Maghazachi, Azzam A and Maharjan, Preeti and Mahasha, Phetole Walter and Maheri, Mina and Mahjoub, Soleiman and Mahmoud, Mansour Adam and Mahmoudi, Elham and Majeed, Azeem and Makris, Konstantinos Christos and Malakan Rad, Elaheh and Malhotra, Kashish and Malik, Ahmad Azam and Malik, Iram and Malta, Deborah Carvalho and Manla, Yosef and Mansour, Ali and Mansouri, Pejman and Mansournia, Mohammad Ali and Mantilla Herrera, Ana M and Mantovani, Lorenzo Giovanni and Manu, Emmanuel and Marateb, Hamid Reza and Mardi, Parham and Martinez, Gabriel and Martinez-Piedra, Ramon and Martini, Daniela and Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio and Martorell, Miquel and Marx, Wolfgang and Maryam, Sharmeen and Marzo, Roy Rillera and Mathangasinghe, Yasith and Mathieson, Stephanie and Mathioudakis, Alexander G and Mattumpuram, Jishanth and Maugeri, Andrea and Mayeli, Mahsa and Mazidi, Mohsen and Mazzotti, Antonio and McGrath, John J and McKee, Martin and McKowen, Anna Laura W and McPhail, Michael A and Mehrabani-Zeinabad, Kamran and Mehrabi Nasab, Entezar and Mekene Meto, Tesfahun and Mendoza, Walter and Menezes, Ritesh G and Mensah, George A and Mentis, Alexios-Fotios A and Meo, Sultan Ayoub and Meresa, Haftu Asmerom and Meretoja, Atte and Meretoja, Tuomo J and Mersha, Abera M and Mestrovic, Tomislav and Mettananda, Kukulege Chamila Dinushi and Mettananda, Sachith and Michalek, Irmina Maria and Miller, Paul Anthony and Miller, Ted R and Mills, Edward J and Minh, Le Huu Nhat and Mirijello, Antonio and Mirrakhimov, Erkin M and Mirutse, Mizan Kiros and Mirza-Aghazadeh-Attari, Mohammad and Mirzaei, Maryam and Mirzaei, Roya and Misganaw, Awoke and Mishra, Ajay Kumar and Mitchell, Philip B and Mittal, Chaitanya and Moazen, Babak and Moberg, Madeline E and Mohamed, Jama and Mohamed, Mouhand F H and Mohamed, Nouh Saad and Mohammadi, Esmaeil and Mohammadi, Soheil and Mohammed, Hussen and Mohammed, Salahuddin and Mohammed, Shafiu and Mohr, Robin M and Mokdad, Ali H and Molinaro, Sabrina and Momtazmanesh, Sara and Monasta, Lorenzo and Mondello, Stefania and Moodi Ghalibaf, AmirAli and Moradi, Maryam and Moradi, Yousef and Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar and Moraga, Paula and Morawska, Lidia and Moreira, Rafael Silveira and Morovatdar, Negar and Morrison, Shane Douglas and Morze, Jakub and Mosapour, Abbas and Mosser, Jonathan F and Mossialos, Elias and Motappa, Rohith and Mougin, Vincent and Mouodi, Simin and Mrejen, Matías and Msherghi, Ahmed and Mubarik, Sumaira and Mueller, Ulrich Otto and Mulita, Francesk and Munjal, Kavita and Murillo-Zamora, Efrén and Murlimanju, BV and Mustafa, Ghulam and Muthu, Sathish and Muzaffar, Muhammad and Myung, Woojae and Nagarajan, Ahamarshan Jayaraman and Naghavi, Pirouz and Naik, Ganesh R and Nainu, Firzan and Nair, Sanjeev and Najmuldeen, Hastyar Hama Rashid and Nangia, Vinay and Naqvi, Atta Abbas and Narayana, Aparna Ichalangod and Nargus, Shumaila and Nascimento, Gustavo G and Nashwan, Abdulqadir J and Nasrollahizadeh, Ali and Nasrollahizadeh, Amir and Natto, Zuhair S and Nayak, Biswa Prakash and Nayak, Vinod C and Nduaguba, Sabina Onyinye and Negash, Hadush and Negoi, Ionut and Negoi, Ruxandra Irina and Nejadghaderi, Seyed Aria and Nesbit, Olivia D and Netsere, Henok Biresaw and Ng, Marie and Nguefack-Tsague, Georges and Ngunjiri, Josephine W and Nguyen, Dang H and Nguyen, Hien Quang and Niazi, Robina Khan and Nikolouzakis, Taxiarchis Konstantinos and Nikoobar, Ali and Nikoomanesh, Fatemeh and Nikpoor, Amin Reza and Nnaji, Chukwudi A and Nnyanzi, Lawrence Achilles and Noman, Efaq Ali and Nomura, Shuhei and Norrving, Bo and Nri-Ezedi, Chisom Adaobi and Ntaios, George and Ntsekhe, Mpiko and Nurrika, Dieta and Nzoputam, Chimezie Igwegbe and Nzoputam, Ogochukwu Janet and Oancea, Bogdan and Odetokun, Ismail A and O'Donnell, Martin James and Oguntade, Ayodipupo Sikiru and Oguta, James Odhiambo and Okati-Aliabad, Hassan and Okeke, Sylvester Reuben and Okekunle, Akinkunmi Paul and Okonji, Osaretin Christabel and Olagunju, Andrew T and Olasupo, Omotola O and Olatubi, Matthew Idowu and Oliveira, Gláucia Maria Moraes and Olufadewa, Isaac Iyinoluwa and Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola and Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun and Omar, Hany A and Omer, Goran Latif and Omonisi, Abidemi E Emmanuel and Onie, Sandersan and Onwujekwe, Obinna E and Ordak, Michal and Orish, Verner N and Ortega-Altamirano, Doris V and Ortiz, Alberto and Ortiz-Brizuela, Edgar and Osman, Wael M S and Ostroff, Samuel M and Osuagwu, Uchechukwu Levi and Otoiu, Adrian and Otstavnov, Nikita and Otstavnov, Stanislav S and Ouyahia, Amel and Ouyang, Guoqing and Owolabi, Mayowa O and P A, Mahesh Padukudru and Padron-Monedero, Alicia and Padubidri, Jagadish Rao and Palladino, Claudia and Pan, Feng and Pandi-Perumal, Seithikurippu R and Pangaribuan, Helena Ullyartha and Panos, Georgios D and Panos, Leonidas D and Pantea Stoian, Anca Mihaela and Pardhan, Shahina and Parikh, Romil R and Pashaei, Ava and Pasovic, Maja and Passera, Roberto and Patel, Jay and Patel, Sangram Kishor and Patil, Shankargouda and Patoulias, Dimitrios and Patthipati, Venkata Suresh and Pawar, Shrikant and Pazoki Toroudi, Hamidreza and Pease, Spencer A and Peden, Amy E and Pedersini, Paolo and Peng, Minjin and Pensato, Umberto and Pepito, Veincent Christian Filipino and Peprah, Emmanuel K and Peprah, Prince and Perdigão, João and Pereira, Maria Odete and Perianayagam, Arokiasamy and Perico, Norberto and Pesudovs, Konrad and Petermann-Rocha, Fanny Emily and Petri, William A and Pham, Hoang Tran and Philip, Anil K and Phillips, Michael R and Pigeolet, Manon and Pigott, David M and Pillay, Julian David and Piracha, Zahra Zahid and Pirouzpanah, Saeed and Plass, Dietrich and Plotnikov, Evgenii and Poddighe, Dimitri and Polinder, Suzanne and Postma, Maarten J and Pourtaheri, Naeimeh and Prada, Sergio I and Pradhan, Pranil Man Singh and Prakash, V and Prasad, Manya and Prates, Elton Junio Sady and Priscilla, Tina and Pritchett, Natalie and Puri, Pooja and Puvvula, Jagadeesh and Qasim, Nameer Hashim and Qattea, Ibrahim and Qazi, Asma Saleem and Qian, Gangzhen and Rabiee Rad, Mehrdad and Radhakrishnan, Raghu Anekal and Radhakrishnan, Venkatraman and Raeisi Shahraki, Hadi and Rafferty, Quinn and Raggi, Alberto and Raghav, Pankaja Raghav and Rahim, Md Jillur and Rahman, Md Mosfequr and Rahman, Mohammad Hifz Ur and Rahman, Mosiur and Rahman, Muhammad Aziz and Rahmani, Shayan and Rahmanian, Mohammad and Rahmawaty, Setyaningrum and Rajaa, Sathish and Ramadan, Mahmoud Mohammed and Ramasamy, Shakthi Kumaran and Ramasubramani, Premkumar and Ramazanu, Sheena and Rana, Kritika and Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal and Rancic, Nemanja and Rane, Amey and Rao, Chythra R and Rao, Kumuda and Rao, Mithun and Rao, Sowmya J and Rashidi, Mohammad-Mahdi and Rathnaiah Babu, Giridhara and Rauniyar, Santosh Kumar and Rawaf, David Laith and Rawaf, Salman and Razo, Christian and Reddy, Murali Mohan Rama Krishna and Redwan, Elrashdy Moustafa Mohamed and Reifels, Lennart and Reiner Jr, Robert C and Remuzzi, Giuseppe and Renzaho, Andre M N and Reshmi, Bhageerathy and Reyes, Luis Felipe and Rezaei, Nazila and Rezaei, Negar and Rezaei, Nima and Rezaei Hachesu, Peyman and Rezaeian, Mohsen and Rickard, Jennifer and Rodrigues, Célia Fortuna and Rodriguez, Jefferson Antonio Buendia and Roever, Leonardo and Ronfani, Luca and Roshandel, Gholamreza and Rotimi, Kunle and Rout, Himanshu Sekhar and Roy, Bedanta and Roy, Nitai and Roy, Priyanka and Rubagotti, Enrico and S N, Chandan and Saad, Aly M A and Saber-Ayad, Maha Mohamed and Sabour, Siamak and Sacco, Simona and Sachdev, Perminder S and Saddik, Basema and Saddler, Adam and Sadee, Bashdar Abuzed and Sadeghi, Erfan and Sadeghi, Masoumeh and Saeb, Mohammad Reza and Saeed, Umar and Safi, Sher Zaman and Sagar, Rajesh and Sagoe, Dominic and Saif, Zahra and Sajid, Mirza Rizwan and Sakshaug, Joseph W and Salam, Nasir and Salami, Afeez Abolarinwa and Salaroli, Luciane B and Saleh, Mohamed A and Salem, Marwa Rashad and Salem, Mohammed Z Y and Sallam, Malik and Samadzadeh, Sara and Samargandy, Saad and Samodra, Yoseph Leonardo and Samy, Abdallah M and Sanabria, Juan and Sanna, Francesca and Santos, Itamar S and Santric-Milicevic, Milena M and Sarasmita, Made Ary and Sarikhani, Yaser and Sarmiento-Suárez, Rodrigo and Sarode, Gargi Sachin and Sarode, Sachin C and Sarveazad, Arash and Sathian, Brijesh and Sathyanarayan, Anudeep and Satpathy, Maheswar and Sawhney, Monika and Scarmeas, Nikolaos and Schaarschmidt, Benedikt Michael and Schmidt, Maria Inês and Schneider, Ione Jayce Ceola and Schumacher, Austin E and Schwebel, David C and Schwendicke, Falk and Sedighi, Mansour and Senapati, Sabyasachi and Senthilkumaran, Subramanian and Sepanlou, Sadaf G and Sethi, Yashendra and Setoguchi, Soko and Seylani, Allen and Shadid, Jamileh and Shafie, Mahan and Shah, Humaira and Shah, Nilay S and Shah, Pritik A and Shahbandi, Ataollah and Shahid, Samiah and Shahid, Wajeehah and Shahwan, Moyad Jamal and Shaikh, Masood Ali and Shakeri, Alireza and Shalash, Ali S and Sham, Sunder and Shamim, Muhammad Aaqib and Shamshirgaran, Mohammad Ali and Shamsi, Mohammad Anas and Shanawaz, Mohd and Shankar, Abhishek and Shannawaz, Mohammed and Sharath, Medha and Sharifan, Amin and Sharifi-Rad, Javad and Sharma, Manoj and Sharma, Rajesh and Sharma, Saurab and Sharma, Ujjawal and Sharma, Vishal and Shastry, Rajesh P and Shavandi, Amin and Shayan, Amir Mehdi and Shayan, Maryam and Shehabeldine, Amr Mohamed Elsayed and Shetty, Pavanchand H and Shibuya, Kenji and Shifa, Jemal Ebrahim and Shiferaw, Desalegn and Shiferaw, Wondimeneh Shibabaw and Shigematsu, Mika and Shiri, Rahman and Shitaye, Nebiyu Aniley and Shittu, Aminu and Shivakumar, K M and Shivarov, Velizar and Shokati Eshkiki, Zahra and Shool, Sina and Shrestha, Sunil and Shuval, Kerem and Sibhat, Migbar Mekonnen and Siddig, Emmanuel Edwar and Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora and Silva, Diego Augusto Santos and Silva, João Pedro and Silva, Luís Manuel Lopes Rodrigues and Silva, Soraia and Simpson, Colin R and Singal, Anjali and Singh, Abhinav and Singh, Balbir Bagicha and Singh, Harmanjit and Singh, Jasvinder A and Singh, Mahendra and Singh, Paramdeep and Skou, Søren T and Sleet, David A and Slepak, Erica Leigh N and Solanki, Ranjan and Soliman, Sameh S M and Song, Suhang and Song, Yimeng and Sorensen, Reed J D and Soriano, Joan B and Soyiri, Ireneous N and Spartalis, Michael and Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T and Stark, Benjamin A and Starodubova, Antonina V and Stein, Caroline and Stein, Dan J and Steiner, Caitlyn and Steiner, Timothy J and Steinmetz, Jaimie D and Steiropoulos, Paschalis and Stockfelt, Leo and Stokes, Mark A and Subedi, Narayan Subedi and Subramaniyan, Vetriselvan and Suemoto, Claudia Kimie and Suleman, Muhammad and Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Rizwan and Sultana, Abida and Sundström, Johan and Swain, Chandan Kumar and Szarpak, Lukasz and Tabaee Damavandi, Payam and Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael and Tabatabaei Malazy, Ozra and Tabatabaeizadeh, Seyed-Amir and Tabatabai, Shima and Tabche, Celine and Tabish, Mohammad and Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar and Taheri Abkenar, Yasaman and Taheri Soodejani, Moslem and Taherkhani, Amir and Taiba, Jabeen and Talaat, Iman M and Talukder, Ashis and Tampa, Mircea and Tamuzi, Jacques Lukenze and Tan, Ker-Kan and Tandukar, Sarmila and Tang, Haosu and Tavakoli Oliaee, Razieh and Tavangar, Seyed Mohammad and Teimoori, Mojtaba and Temsah, Mohamad-Hani and Teramoto, Masayuki and Thangaraju, Pugazhenthan and Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman and Thapar, Rekha and Thayakaran, Rasiah and Thirunavukkarasu, Sathish and Thomas, Nihal and Thomas, Nikhil Kenny and Thum, Chern Choong Chern and Tichopad, Ales and Ticoalu, Jansje Henny Vera and Tillawi, Tala and Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer and Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan and Tonelli, Marcello and Topor-Madry, Roman and Torre, Anna E and Touvier, Mathilde and Tovani-Palone, Marcos Roberto and Tran, Jasmine T and Tran, Mai Thi Ngoc and Tran, Nghia Minh and Tran, Ngoc-Ha and Trico, Domenico and Tromans, Samuel Joseph and Truyen, Thien Tan Tri Tai and Tsatsakis, Aristidis and Tsegay, Guesh Mebrahtom and Tsermpini, Evangelia Eirini and Tumurkhuu, Munkhtuya and Tyrovolas, Stefanos and Udoh, Arit and Umair, Muhammad and Umakanthan, Srikanth and Umar, Tungki Pratama and Undurraga, Eduardo A and Unim, Brigid and Unnikrishnan, Bhaskaran and Unsworth, Carolyn Anne and Upadhyay, Era and Urso, Daniele and Usman, Jibrin Sammani and Vahabi, Seyed Mohammad and Vaithinathan, Asokan Govindaraj and Van den Eynde, Jef and Varga, Orsolya and Varma, Ravi Prasad and Vart, Priya and Vasankari, Tommi Juhani and Vasic, Milena and Vaziri, Siavash and Vellingiri, Balachandar and Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy and Veroux, Massimiliano and Verras, Georgios-Ioannis and Vervoort, Dominique and Villafañe, Jorge Hugo and Violante, Francesco S and Vlassov, Vasily and Vollset, Stein Emil and Volovat, Simona Ruxandra and Vongpradith, Avina and Waheed, Yasir and Wang, Cong and Wang, Fang and Wang, Ning and Wang, Shu and Wang, Yanzhong and Wang, Yuan-Pang and Ward, Paul and Wassie, Emebet Gashaw and Weaver, Marcia R and Weerakoon, Kosala Gayan and Weintraub, Robert G and Weiss, Daniel J and Weldemariam, Abrha Hailay and Wells, Katherine M and Wen, Yi Feng and Whisnant, Joanna L and Whiteford, Harvey A and Wiangkham, Taweewat and Wickramasinghe, Dakshitha Praneeth and Wickramasinghe, Nuwan Darshana and Wilandika, Angga and Wilkerson, Caroline and Willeit, Peter and Wimo, Anders and Woldegebreal, Demewoz H and Wolf, Axel Walter and Wong, Yen Jun and Woolf, Anthony D and Wu, Chenkai and Wu, Felicia and Wu, Xinsheng and Wu, Zenghong and Wulf Hanson, Sarah and Xia, Yanjie and Xiao, Hong and Xu, Xiaoyue and Xu, Yvonne Yiru and Yadav, Lalit and Yadollahpour, Ali and Yaghoubi, Sajad and Yamagishi, Kazumasa and Yang, Lin and Yano, Yuichiro and Yao, Yao and Yaribeygi, Habib and Yazdanpanah, Mohammad Hosein and Ye, Pengpeng and Yehualashet, Sisay Shewasinad and Yesuf, Subah Abderehim and Yezli, Saber and Yiğit, Arzu and Yiğit, Vahit and Yigzaw, Zeamanuel Anteneh and Yismaw, Yazachew and Yon, Dong Keon and Yonemoto, Naohiro and Younis, Mustafa Z and Yu, Chuanhua and Yu, Yong and Yusuf, Hadiza and Zahid, Mondal Hasan and Zakham, Fathiah and Zaki, Leila and Zaki, Nazar and Zaman, Burhan Abdullah and Zamora, Nelson and Zand, Ramin and Zandieh, Ghazal G Z and Zar, Heather J and Zarrintan, Armin and Zastrozhin, Mikhail Sergeevich and Zhang, Haijun and Zhang, Ning and Zhang, Yunquan and Zhao, Hanqing and Zhong, Chenwen and Zhong, Panliang and Zhou, Juexiao and Zhu, Zhaohua and Ziafati, Makan and Zielińska, Magdalena and Zimsen, Stephanie R M and Zoladl, Mohammad and Zumla, Alimuddin and Zyoud, Samer H and Vos, Theo and Murray, Christopher J L},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00757-8},
	journal-iso = {LANCET},
	journal = {LANCET},
	unique-id = {34803496},
	issn = {0140-6736},
	abstract = {Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic.The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021.Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1474-547X},
	orcid-numbers = {Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Lám, Judit/0000-0001-9621-1563; Palicz, Tamás Gyula/0000-0003-3676-2878}
}

@article{MTMT:34754562,
	title = {Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2021, with forecasts to 2100. a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34754562},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00550-6},
	journal-iso = {LANCET},
	journal = {LANCET},
	unique-id = {34754562},
	issn = {0140-6736},
	abstract = {Accurate assessments of current and future fertility-including overall trends and changing population age structures across countries and regions-are essential to help plan for the profound social, economic, environmental, and geopolitical challenges that these changes will bring. Estimates and projections of fertility are necessary to inform policies involving resource and health-care needs, labour supply, education, gender equality, and family planning and support. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 produced up-to-date and comprehensive demographic assessments of key fertility indicators at global, regional, and national levels from 1950 to 2021 and forecast fertility metrics to 2100 based on a reference scenario and key policy-dependent alternative scenarios.To estimate fertility indicators from 1950 to 2021, mixed-effects regression models and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression were used to synthesise data from 8709 country-years of vital and sample registrations, 1455 surveys and censuses, and 150 other sources, and to generate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for 5-year age groups from age 10 years to 54 years. ASFRs were summed across age groups to produce estimates of total fertility rate (TFR). Livebirths were calculated by multiplying ASFR and age-specific female population, then summing across ages 10-54 years. To forecast future fertility up to 2100, our Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) forecasting model was based on projections of completed cohort fertility at age 50 years (CCF50; the average number of children born over time to females from a specified birth cohort), which yields more stable and accurate measures of fertility than directly modelling TFR. CCF50 was modelled using an ensemble approach in which three sub-models (with two, three, and four covariates variously consisting of female educational attainment, contraceptive met need, population density in habitable areas, and under-5 mortality) were given equal weights, and analyses were conducted utilising the MR-BRT (meta-regression-Bayesian, regularised, trimmed) tool. To capture time-series trends in CCF50 not explained by these covariates, we used a first-order autoregressive model on the residual term. CCF50 as a proportion of each 5-year ASFR was predicted using a linear mixed-effects model with fixed-effects covariates (female educational attainment and contraceptive met need) and random intercepts for geographical regions. Projected TFRs were then computed for each calendar year as the sum of single-year ASFRs across age groups. The reference forecast is our estimate of the most likely fertility future given the model, past fertility, forecasts of covariates, and historical relationships between covariates and fertility. We additionally produced forecasts for multiple alternative scenarios in each location: the UN Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) for education is achieved by 2030; the contraceptive met need SDG is achieved by 2030; pro-natal policies are enacted to create supportive environments for those who give birth; and the previous three scenarios combined. Uncertainty from past data inputs and model estimation was propagated throughout analyses by taking 1000 draws for past and present fertility estimates and 500 draws for future forecasts from the estimated distribution for each metric, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) given as the 2·5 and 97·5 percentiles of the draws. To evaluate the forecasting performance of our model and others, we computed skill values-a metric assessing gain in forecasting accuracy-by comparing predicted versus observed ASFRs from the past 15 years (2007-21). A positive skill metric indicates that the model being evaluated performs better than the baseline model (here, a simplified model holding 2007 values constant in the future), and a negative metric indicates that the evaluated model performs worse than baseline.During the period from 1950 to 2021, global TFR more than halved, from 4·84 (95% UI 4·63-5·06) to 2·23 (2·09-2·38). Global annual livebirths peaked in 2016 at 142 million (95% UI 137-147), declining to 129 million (121-138) in 2021. Fertility rates declined in all countries and territories since 1950, with TFR remaining above 2·1-canonically considered replacement-level fertility-in 94 (46·1%) countries and territories in 2021. This included 44 of 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, which was the super-region with the largest share of livebirths in 2021 (29·2% [28·7-29·6]). 47 countries and territories in which lowest estimated fertility between 1950 and 2021 was below replacement experienced one or more subsequent years with higher fertility; only three of these locations rebounded above replacement levels. Future fertility rates were projected to continue to decline worldwide, reaching a global TFR of 1·83 (1·59-2·08) in 2050 and 1·59 (1·25-1·96) in 2100 under the reference scenario. The number of countries and territories with fertility rates remaining above replacement was forecast to be 49 (24·0%) in 2050 and only six (2·9%) in 2100, with three of these six countries included in the 2021 World Bank-defined low-income group, all located in the GBD super-region of sub-Saharan Africa. The proportion of livebirths occurring in sub-Saharan Africa was forecast to increase to more than half of the world's livebirths in 2100, to 41·3% (39·6-43·1) in 2050 and 54·3% (47·1-59·5) in 2100. The share of livebirths was projected to decline between 2021 and 2100 in most of the six other super-regions-decreasing, for example, in south Asia from 24·8% (23·7-25·8) in 2021 to 16·7% (14·3-19·1) in 2050 and 7·1% (4·4-10·1) in 2100-but was forecast to increase modestly in the north Africa and Middle East and high-income super-regions. Forecast estimates for the alternative combined scenario suggest that meeting SDG targets for education and contraceptive met need, as well as implementing pro-natal policies, would result in global TFRs of 1·65 (1·40-1·92) in 2050 and 1·62 (1·35-1·95) in 2100. The forecasting skill metric values for the IHME model were positive across all age groups, indicating that the model is better than the constant prediction.Fertility is declining globally, with rates in more than half of all countries and territories in 2021 below replacement level. Trends since 2000 show considerable heterogeneity in the steepness of declines, and only a small number of countries experienced even a slight fertility rebound after their lowest observed rate, with none reaching replacement level. Additionally, the distribution of livebirths across the globe is shifting, with a greater proportion occurring in the lowest-income countries. Future fertility rates will continue to decline worldwide and will remain low even under successful implementation of pro-natal policies. These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to ageing populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1474-547X},
	orcid-numbers = {Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Lám, Judit/0000-0001-9621-1563; Pollner, Péter/0000-0003-0464-4893; Szócska, Miklós/0000-0003-0648-9778}
}

@article{MTMT:34750478,
	title = {Global age-sex-specific mortality, life expectancy, and population estimates in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1950-2021, and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34750478},
	doi = {10.1016/S0140-6736(24)00476-8},
	journal-iso = {LANCET},
	journal = {LANCET},
	unique-id = {34750478},
	issn = {0140-6736},
	abstract = {Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period.22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution.Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations.Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1474-547X},
	orcid-numbers = {Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Lám, Judit/0000-0001-9621-1563; Palicz, Tamás Gyula/0000-0003-3676-2878; Pollner, Péter/0000-0003-0464-4893; Szócska, Miklós/0000-0003-0648-9778}
}

@article{MTMT:34694205,
	title = {A multimodal deep learning architecture for smoking detection with a small data approach},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34694205},
	author = {Lakatos, Róbert and Pollner, Péter and Hajdu, András and Joó, Tamás},
	doi = {10.3389/frai.2024.1326050},
	journal-iso = {FRONTI ARTIF INTELL},
	journal = {FRONTIERS IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE},
	volume = {7},
	unique-id = {34694205},
	abstract = {Covert tobacco advertisements often raise regulatory measures. This paper presents that artificial intelligence, particularly deep learning, has great potential for detecting hidden advertising and allows unbiased, reproducible, and fair quantification of tobacco-related media content. We propose an integrated text and image processing model based on deep learning, generative methods, and human reinforcement, which can detect smoking cases in both textual and visual formats, even with little available training data. Our model can achieve 74% accuracy for images and 98% for text. Furthermore, our system integrates the possibility of expert intervention in the form of human reinforcement. Using the pre-trained multimodal, image, and text processing models available through deep learning makes it possible to detect smoking in different media even with few training data.},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {2624-8212},
	orcid-numbers = {Pollner, Péter/0000-0003-0464-4893; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125}
}

@article{MTMT:34521945,
	title = {Impact of regulatory tightening of the Hungarian tobacco retail market on availability, access and cigarette smoking prevalence of adolescents.},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34521945},
	author = {Joó, Tamás and Foley, Kristie and Brys, Zoltán and Rogers, Todd and Szócska, Miklós and Bodrogi, József and Gaál, Péter and Pénzes, Melinda},
	doi = {10.1136/tc-2023-058232},
	journal-iso = {TOB CONTROL},
	journal = {TOBACCO CONTROL},
	volume = {In press},
	unique-id = {34521945},
	issn = {0964-4563},
	abstract = {Policies that reduce tobacco retail density to decrease tobacco use among the youth are critical for the tobacco endgame. This paper reviews a Hungarian tobacco regulatory measure, which, since 2013, has confined the sale of tobacco products exclusively to so-called National Tobacco Shops, summarises the changes in the national tobacco retail marketplace and reports on analyses of the impact of this intervention on illegal sales to minors and adolescent smoking behaviour.We reviewed the available national statistical data on the structure and dynamics of the tobacco retail market. Changes in lifetime and current (past 30 days) use of cigarettes among Hungarian adolescents aged 13-17 years were assessed using data from international youth surveys on health behaviours collected in 2010-2020.Since the start of policy implementation, the density of tobacco shops in Hungary decreased by 85%, from 4.1 to 0.6 per 1000 persons. The prevalence of lifetime and current cigarette smoking among adolescents declined by 13-24 percentage points (pp) and by 4.8-15 pp, respectively. The rate of illegal sales of tobacco products to minors decreased by 27.6 pp, although the prevalence of compensatory access strategies, especially asking others to buy cigarettes for minors, increased.After a significant decrease in the nationwide availability of licensed tobacco retailers, Hungary experienced short-term reductions in youth smoking prevalence. However, the sporadic implementation of complementary, evidence-based tobacco control strategies might limit further declines in youth smoking initiation and tobacco product use.},
	keywords = {Public Policy; surveillance and monitoring; End game},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1468-3318},
	orcid-numbers = {Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Brys, Zoltán/0000-0002-3324-2255; Szócska, Miklós/0000-0003-0648-9778; Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021; Pénzes, Melinda/0000-0001-7396-4028}
}

@article{MTMT:34520558,
	title = {Az egészségkárosodás társadalmi költségei a munkaképes korú lakosság körében 2019-ben Magyarországon},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34520558},
	author = {Joó, Tamás and Fadgyas-Freyler, Petra and Vitrai, József and Kollányi, Zsófia Katalin},
	doi = {10.1556/650.2024.32955},
	journal-iso = {ORV HETIL},
	journal = {ORVOSI HETILAP},
	volume = {165},
	unique-id = {34520558},
	issn = {0030-6002},
	abstract = {Bevezetés: Hazánkban a várható egészséges életévek száma alacsonyabb, mint a nyugdíjkorhatár, vagyis a 30 és 64 éves kor közötti magyar lakosság megromlott egészségi állapota jelentős termeléskiesést okoz. A gazdasági szempontokon túl a munkaképes korú korosztály romlott egészségi állapotát más társadalmi szereplő nézőpontjából is lehet vizsgálni, a közvetett költségeket az emberitőke-megközelítésnek megfelelően kalkulálva. Célkitűzés: Becslésünk célja az volt, hogy megvilágítsuk, mekkora veszteségeket okoz Magyarország számára évről évre az, hogy lakosai jelentősen rövidebb és betegebb életre számíthatnak, mint más országok hasonló helyzetű lakosai. Módszer: Az elemzés első részében a 30–64 éves korosztályra vonatkozóan 2019-re összesítettük a megromlott egészség és a betegségek okozta korlátozottság miatt elvesztett, egészségben eltöltött időt. A vizsgált korosztályra vonatkozó magyar értékeket a visegrádi országok, Ausztria és az Európai Unió megfelelő értékeivel vetettük össze. Az elemzés második részében a betegségben töltött időhöz kapcsolódó társadalmi költségeket mutattuk be, melyek között megkülönböztettünk közvetlen, pénzmozgással járó költségeket, valamint közvetett, az elmaradt bevételekben vagy termelésben megtestesülő költségeket. Eredmények: Az eredmények alapján megállapítható, hogy 2019-ben Magyarországon a munkanapok egyhetedében az egészségproblémák miatt csökkent a termelékenység és a teljesített munkaidő. Átlagosan 51 naptári nap, ennek megfelelően 35 munkanap elveszett egészséges idő jutott minden 30–64 éves munkaképes magyarra. A közvetlen költségek, vagyis az Egészségbiztosítási Alap természetbeni kiadásainak, valamint a betegek és az önkéntes (magán)biztosítás által finanszírozott kiadásainak összege 1446 milliárd Ft-ot tett ki. A közvetett költségek, amelyek a korai halálozásnak és a betegségeknek betudható munkaévveszteség következtében fellépő kiadásokat jelentik, további 2279 milliárd Ft terhet jelentettek. Következtetés: A 30–64 évesek közvetlen és közvetett kiadásainak összege 2019-ben 3425 milliárd Ft-ot tett ki, a GDP 7,21%-át. Jól ismert, hogy a fejlett országokban, így Magyarországon is azok a nem fertőző, krónikus betegségek okozzák a legnagyobb egészségveszteséget, amelyek egészséges életmóddal megelőzhetők. Az ország versenyképességének javításához emiatt elengedhetetlen az egészséges életmód előmozdítása és az azt elősegítő fizikai és szociális környezet kialakítása. Orv Hetil. 2024; 165(3): 110–120.},
	keywords = {társadalmi költség; munkaévveszteség; munkaképes korú; jövedelemveszteség},
	year = {2024},
	eissn = {1788-6120},
	pages = {110-120},
	orcid-numbers = {Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Fadgyas-Freyler, Petra/0000-0002-0858-8924; Vitrai, József/0000-0001-9267-806X; Kollányi, Zsófia Katalin/0000-0003-1261-6745}
}

@{MTMT:34569456,
	title = {A nemzeti egészségügyi adatvagyon gazdasági jelentősége},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34569456},
	author = {Szócska, Miklós and Joó, Tamás and Gaál, Péter},
	booktitle = {Medicina évkönyv 2023. A magyar egészségügy számokban: ellátás, gazdaság, innováció},
	unique-id = {34569456},
	year = {2023},
	pages = {44-47},
	orcid-numbers = {Szócska, Miklós/0000-0003-0648-9778; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021}
}

@article{MTMT:34518238,
	title = {Röviden az Év Medikusa díjról},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34518238},
	author = {Lőrincz, Orsolya and Joó, Tamás and Gaál, Péter},
	journal-iso = {IME},
	journal = {IME},
	volume = {22},
	unique-id = {34518238},
	issn = {1588-6387},
	year = {2023},
	eissn = {1789-9974},
	pages = {51-51},
	orcid-numbers = {Lőrincz, Orsolya/0000-0003-2294-2405; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021}
}

@article{MTMT:34486659,
	title = {Global Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases and Risks, 1990-2022},
	url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34486659},
	author = {Mensah, George A and Fuster, Valentin and Murray, Christopher J L and Roth, Gregory A},
	doi = {10.1016/j.jacc.2023.11.007},
	journal-iso = {J AM COLL CARDIOL},
	journal = {JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN COLLEGE OF CARDIOLOGY},
	volume = {82},
	unique-id = {34486659},
	issn = {0735-1097},
	year = {2023},
	eissn = {1558-3597},
	pages = {2350-2473},
	orcid-numbers = {Bikov, András/0000-0002-8983-740X; Gaál, Péter/0000-0002-6815-9021; Joó, Tamás/0000-0002-3551-6125; Palicz, Tamás Gyula/0000-0003-3676-2878}
}