TY - JOUR AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Ács, Ferenc AU - Zsákai, Annamária TI - On the Human Thermal Load in Fog JF - METEOROLOGY J2 - METEOROLOGY VL - 3 PY - 2024 IS - 1 SP - 83 EP - 96 PG - 14 SN - 2674-0494 DO - 10.3390/meteorology3010004 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34565336 ID - 34565336 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Szépszó, Gabriella AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Horányi, András AU - Kalmár, Tímea AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Szintai, Balázs AU - Tóth, Helga TI - Emlékülés Götz Gusztáv születésének 90. évfordulójára JF - LÉGKÖR: AZ ORSZÁGOS METEOROLÓGIAI INTÉZET SZAKMAI TÁJÉKOZTATÓJA J2 - LÉGKÖR VL - 69 PY - 2024 IS - 1 SP - 2 EP - 11 PG - 10 SN - 0133-3666 DO - 10.56474/legkor.2024.1.1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34563684 ID - 34563684 AB - Götz Gusztáv születésének 90. évfordulójára a Magyar Meteorológiai Társaság (MMT) Légkördinamikai Szakosztálya 2023. november 6-án egy emlékülést szervezett. Elsőként olyan kollégák osztották meg emlékeiket, akik személyesen ismerték őt, majd ezt néhány fifiatal kolléga előadása követte, akik az elmúlt években elnyerték az MMT Götz Gusztávról elnevezett publikációs díját. Az emlékév alkalmából egy szakmai kvíz is összeállításra került, melyet nagyrészt a Káosz és prognosztika című könyv ihletett. LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Blazsek, Szabolcs AU - Álvaro, Escribano AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet TI - Global Sea ice volume forecasts for the next 100 years using score-driven threshold climate models T2 - Conference on Climate and Energy Finance PY - 2023 SP - 1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34707779 ID - 34707779 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - GEN AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet TI - Légköri távkapcsolati mintázatok azonosítása dimenzióredukciós módszerek alkalmazásával PY - 2023 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34538261 ID - 34538261 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet TI - Local polynomial regression-based evaluation of general circulation models regarding teleconnections in boreal wintertime T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2023 DO - 10.5194/ems2023-431 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34131830 ID - 34131830 AB - General circulation models (GCMs) are effective tools to simulate the climate system and to assess its changings. Since large-scale atmospheric teleconnections are the imprints of the internal variability of the climate system, the evaluation of the GCMs concerning teleconnections became an important task in the field of climatology. Previously, a negative extrema-based method was applied on gridded 500 hPa geopotential height time series in the boreal wintertime. First, the Pearson correlations were calculated between all time series. Then, the strongest negative correlation was selected in each grid cell. Finally, the pairs of grid cells were selected which have the same associated negative correlation values. Based on the ECMWF’s ERA-20C and the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1 datasets, it was found that, these pairs of grid cells are mostly located in a north‑south direction, surrounding the Northern Hemisphere in two belts. This means that the geopotential height in the two belts changes simultaneously in opposite directions. The two belts were represented by local polynomial regression (LOESS) curves. It was pointed out that the two belts can be detected in the first realizations of all available historical GCM outputs of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), but the courses of the LOESS curves were not captured well by some of the GCMs compared to the reanalyses, especially in case of the southerly located belt. However, different GCM realizations may produce significantly different LOESS curves. Therefore, the aim of this study is to quantify the differences of the LOESS curves obtained from multiple realizations of the GCMs disseminated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The future goal is to use LOESS curves to detect changes in the climate system, i.e. shifts of the oppositely varying belts. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Ács, Ferenc AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Szalkai, Zsófia AU - Zsákai, Annamária TI - Human thermal load in the fog in the Hungarian lowland T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2023 DO - 10.5194/ems2023-446 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34131809 ID - 34131809 AB - Fog is one of the special weather phenomena of the Hungarian lowlands in autumn and winter. It has been studied from many points of view (for example frequency, type, predictability), but not yet from the point of view of human thermal load. The aim of this work is to fill this gap. We observed a total of 132 fog events at Martonvásár (Hungary, Central Transdanubian region) in the period 2017-2023. During our observations, we documented the period of its existence, air pressure, air temperature, air humidity and wind speed. Based on the meteorological and human (body mass, body length, sex, age, person walking at a speed of 1.1 m/s) data, we estimated the thermal load of the foggy environment using a clothing thermal resistance (rcl)-operative temperature model. The model is very simple, based on the calculation of the energy balance of the human body covered with clothing. The main results are as follows. In the fogs that cause the greatest lack of heat, the rcl is around 2.5 clo, the operative temperature is around -7 ℃. In fogs with a much smaller heat deficit, the rcl is around 0.5 clo, and the operative temperature is around 15-17 ℃. In the vast majority of cases, rcl varies between 1-2 clo. We were able to make sure that the thermal load of the fog is mostly determined by the temperature and radiation conditions. Further observations are needed. For instance, one should observe the smallest thermal deficit, in which fog can still exist. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ács, Ferenc AU - Szalkai, Zsófia AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Zsákai, Annamária TI - Thermal resistance of clothing in human biometeorological models JF - GEOGRAPHICA PANNONICA J2 - GEOGRAPHICA PANNONICA VL - 27 PY - 2023 IS - 2 SP - 83 EP - 90 PG - 8 SN - 0354-8724 DO - 10.5937/gp27-40554 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34074750 ID - 34074750 AB - Three different clothing thermal resistance (r cl) schemes are compared using meteorological and human data collected in Martonvásár. Model 1 is the most complex, it is energy balance based. Model 3 is the simplest, it is the UTCI-clothing model used as submodel in the UTCI (Universal Thermal Climate Index) scheme. It uses air temperature as sole input. Model 2 uses more data than model 3, the data used are the thermal insulation values of the clothing worn. Meteorological data refer to the town Martonvásár. The data were collected in the period August 9, 2016-May 23, 2018. The main result is that the r cl values obtained by model 1 differ significantly in most of the cases from the results obtained by models 3 or 2. The fact that the results of model 1 rarely match the results of model 3 or model 2 suggests that the energy balance between human body and environment is rarely achieved, merely this is the case in approximately 10 percent of the cases. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Kalmár, Tímea AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Hollós, Roland AU - Pieczka, Ildikó AU - Pongrácz, Rita TI - Quantifying uncertainties related to observational datasets used as reference for regional climate model evaluation over complex topography — a case study for the wettest year 2010 in the Carpathian region JF - THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY J2 - THEORET APPL CLIMAT VL - 153 PY - 2023 IS - 1 SP - 807 EP - 828 PG - 22 SN - 0177-798X DO - 10.1007/s00704-023-04491-4 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33989177 ID - 33989177 N1 - Department of Meteorology, Institute of Geography and Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Doctoral School of Earth Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány P. sétány 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Agricultural Institute, Centre for Agricultural Research, Brunszvik u. 2, Budapest, H-2462, Hungary Doctoral School of Environmental Sciences, Eötvös Loránd University, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Export Date: 5 July 2023 Correspondence Address: Kalmár, T.; Department of Meteorology, Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A, Hungary; email: timea.kalmar@ttk.elte.hu AB - Gridded observational datasets are often used for the evaluation of regional climate model (RCM) simulations. However, the uncertainty of observations affects the evaluation. This work introduces a novel method to quantify the uncertainties in the observational datasets and how these uncertainties affect the evaluation of RCM simulations. Besides precipitation and temperature, our method uses geographic variables (e.g. elevation, variability of elevation, effect of station), which are considered as uncertainty sources. To assess these uncertainties, a complex analysis based on various statistical tools, e.g. correlation analysis and permutation test, was carried out. Furthermore, we used a special metric, the reduction of error ( RE ) to identify where the RCM shows improvement compared to the lateral boundary conditions (LBCs). We focused on the Carpathian region, because of its unique orographic and climatic conditions. The method is applied to two observational datasets (CarpatClim and E-OBS) and to RegCM simulations for 2010, the wettest year in this region since 1901. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet TI - Locational stability analysis of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns detected in the historical outputs of general circulation models T2 - MeteoXchange Programme and Abstract Book PY - 2023 SP - 39 PG - 1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33752387 ID - 33752387 AB - An important task in climatology is the assessment of the impact of atmospheric teleconnections on climate variables. To this end, teleconnection indices are obtained which represent the most intense regions – i.e., the action centers – of the teleconnections. Beside pattern-based indices, station-based and grid point-based indices are also widely used. A negative extrema-based method can be applied to create grid point-based teleconnection indices. Namely, gridded time series are correlated with each other, then the strongest negative correlation is selected in each grid point. In the field of strongest negative correlations, local correlation minima are considered as a teleconnection pattern if those include at least one pair of grid points with the same correlation value. These pairs of grid points can be called as potential action centers (PotACs). The PotAC with the strongest negative correlation can be selected as the action center of each teleconnection pattern. It was found in the Author’s previous study based on the ECMWF’s ERA-20C reanalysis and the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 1, that the action centers of the teleconnection patterns detected in the boreal wintertime remain in similar position or systematic shifts are identified through the second half of the 20th century. Some GCMs disseminated by the CMIP5 reproduced similar results as the reanalyses, however, some GCMs reproduced altering action centers depending on the examined period. In this study the locational stability of the PotACs is analyzed in different realizations of historical GCM outputs to explore the underlying causes of this altering. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Ács, Ferenc AU - Kristóf, Erzsébet AU - Zsákai, Annamária TI - Individual local human thermal climates in the Hungarian lowland: Estimations by a simple clothing resistance‐operative temperature model JF - INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY J2 - INT J CLIMATOL VL - 43 PY - 2023 IS - 3 SP - 1273 EP - 1292 PG - 20 SN - 0899-8418 DO - 10.1002/joc.7910 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33249109 ID - 33249109 N1 - First published: 31 October 2022 AB - Human thermal climate in the Hungarian lowland is investigated by using a clothing resistance-operative temperature model performing individual, local, and long-term concurrent observations of weather and human thermal perception. Human thermal load is characterized in terms of clothing resistance r(cl) and operative temperature T-o. The model is also used as a tool to analyse the relationship between r(cl) and the structural parameters of the body (relative fat mass index (fatBMI) and relative muscle mass index (muscleBMI)). This analysis works with data collected on more than 1,000 occasions of weather and thermal perception observation and uses body structure data of more than 3,000 adults and children. By analysing the data, the following human thermal climate characteristics have been established. (a) T-o of about 80 degrees C can be considered as the upper limit of heat stress in the Hungarian lowland, similarly, T-o of about -35 to -37 degrees C can be taken as the lower limit of cold stress. (b) Interpersonal thermal load variations increase with increasing of cold stress; these variations are the smallest within the "thermoneutral" zone. (c) In cold stress situations, there is a significant sexual dimorphism in the relationship between r(cl) and fatBMI. (d) In night time period of the day, T-o can vary between 25 degrees C and the lower limit of cold stress. In this range of T-o, thermal perception types "neutral," "cool," "cold," and "very cold" occurred. Based on the results, it can be seen that interpersonal thermal load variations cannot be neglected in extreme cold weather conditions, and that interpersonal variations of fatBMI index are determinant in the formation of individual clothing resistance. LA - English DB - MTMT ER -