@article{MTMT:31144197, title = {Parallel MCMC sampling of AR-HMMs for prediction based option trading}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/31144197}, author = {Sipos, István Róbert and Ceffer, Attila and Horváth, Gábor and Levendovszky, János}, doi = {10.3233/AF-190243}, journal-iso = {ALGORITHM FINANCE}, journal = {ALGORITHMIC FINANCE}, volume = {8}, unique-id = {31144197}, issn = {2158-5571}, year = {2019}, eissn = {2157-6203}, pages = {47-55}, orcid-numbers = {Horváth, Gábor/0000-0003-3097-1273; Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} } @article{MTMT:3252486, title = {Low Complexity Algorithmic Trading by Feedforward Neural Networks}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3252486}, author = {Levendovszky, János and Reguly, István Zoltán and Oláh, András and Ceffer, Attila}, doi = {10.1007/s10614-017-9720-6}, journal-iso = {COMPUT ECON}, journal = {COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {54}, unique-id = {3252486}, issn = {0927-7099}, year = {2019}, eissn = {1572-9974}, pages = {267-279}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X; Reguly, István Zoltán/0000-0002-4385-4204; Oláh, András/0009-0003-4796-8932} } @article{MTMT:3393080, title = {Trading by estimating the quantized forward distribution}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3393080}, author = {Ceffer, Attila and Fogarasi, Norbert and Levendovszky, János}, doi = {10.1080/00036846.2018.1486021}, journal-iso = {APPL ECON}, journal = {APPLIED ECONOMICS}, volume = {50}, unique-id = {3393080}, issn = {0003-6846}, year = {2018}, eissn = {1466-4283}, pages = {6397-6405}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} } @article{MTMT:3256024, title = {Applying Independent Component Analysis and Predictive Systems for Algorithmic Trading}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3256024}, author = {Ceffer, Attila and Levendovszky, János and Fogarasi, Norbert}, doi = {10.1007/s10614-017-9719-z}, journal-iso = {COMPUT ECON}, journal = {COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {54}, unique-id = {3256024}, issn = {0927-7099}, year = {2018}, eissn = {1572-9974}, pages = {281-303}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} } @CONFERENCE{MTMT:3342883, title = {Trading by estimating the forward distribution using quantization and volatility information}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3342883}, author = {Ceffer, Attila and Levendovszky, János}, booktitle = {3rd International Workshop on Financial Markets and Nonlinear Dynamics}, unique-id = {3342883}, year = {2017}, pages = {1-14}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} } @article{MTMT:3043217, title = {Parallel optimization of sparse portfolios with AR-HMMs}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3043217}, author = {Sipos, István Róbert and Ceffer, Attila and Levendovszky, János}, doi = {10.1007/s10614-016-9579-y}, journal-iso = {COMPUT ECON}, journal = {COMPUTATIONAL ECONOMICS}, volume = {49}, unique-id = {3043217}, issn = {0927-7099}, year = {2017}, eissn = {1572-9974}, pages = {563-578}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} } @CONFERENCE{MTMT:3183235, title = {Applying ICA and NARX networks for algorithmic trading}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3183235}, author = {Ceffer, Attila and Levendovszky, János and Fogarasi, Norbert}, booktitle = {Fourth International Symposium in Computational Economics and Finance}, unique-id = {3183235}, abstract = {In this paper, a Nonlinear AutoRegressive network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) is proposed for algorithmic trading by predicting the future value of financial time series. This network is highly capable of modeling vector autoregressive VAR(p) time series. In order to avoid overfitting, the input is pre-processed by Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to filter out the most noise like component. In this way, the accuracy of the prediction is increased. The proposed algorithm has a reduced number of free parameters which makes fast learning and trading possible. The method is not only tested on single asset price series, but also on predicting the value of mean reverting portfolios obtained by maximizing the predictability parameter of VAR(1) processes. The tests were first performed on artificially generated data and then on real data selected from Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) time series including bid-ask spread. In both cases profit has been achieved by the proposed method.}, year = {2016}, pages = {1-16} } @inproceedings{MTMT:3183215, title = {Kolmogorov-Smirnov test for keystroke dynamics based user authentication}, url = {https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3183215}, author = {Ceffer, Attila and Levendovszky, János}, booktitle = {2016 17TH IEEE INTERNATIONAL SYMPOSIUM ON COMPUTATIONAL INTELLIGENCE AND INFORMATICS (CINTI 2016}, doi = {10.1109/CINTI.2016.7846387}, unique-id = {3183215}, abstract = {In this paper a novel user authentication method is proposed based on analyzing the keystroke patterns. Instead of using Nearest Neighbor classification with Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) distance measure, the typing dynamics are classified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. First the typing pattern is translated into a sequence of holding times and latencies between consecutive keystrokes. In order to increase the classification performance, an adaptive preprocessing is used to get rid of the outliers. Then the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied to classify the observed pattern. To further increase the correct classification ratio, semi-supervised self training methods are applied. One of the key objectives of the paper is to analyze the performance with respect to the length of typed characters, as in the case of authentication systems users cannot be asked to type long texts. The simulations have demonstrated that the proposed method performs better than the 1 Nearest Neighbor DTW classifier on all text lengths. It has also been shown that when the length of the typed text reduces to 10 characters, then the classification ratio sinks to 50% from 90.5% achieved in the case of longer texts in the range of 200 characters.}, year = {2016}, pages = {105-110}, orcid-numbers = {Levendovszky, János/0000-0003-1406-442X} }