TY - JOUR AU - Bór, József AU - Bozóki, Tamás AU - Buzás, Attila AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Dániel, Piri AU - Prácser, Ernő AU - Pásztor, Marcell Sebestyén AU - Sátori, Gabriella AU - Szabóné André, Karolina AU - Earle, Williams TI - HUN-REN Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science, Sopron, Hungary JF - NEWSLETTER ON ATMOSPHERIC ELECTRICITY J2 - NEWSL ATMOS ELECTRICITY VL - 35 PY - 2024 IS - 1 SP - 4 EP - 6 PG - 3 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/35063931 ID - 35063931 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Jánosi, Dániel AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás TI - An ensemble based approach for the effect of climate change on the dynamics of extremes T2 - EGU General Assembly 2024 PB - European Geosciences Union (EGU) C1 - Wien PY - 2024 DO - 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6164 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34816219 ID - 34816219 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Jánosi, Imre Miklós TI - Converged ensemble simulations of climate: possible trends in total solar irradiance cannot explain global warming alone JF - FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE J2 - FRONT EARTH SC-SWITZ VL - 12 PY - 2024 SP - 1 EP - 19 PG - 19 SN - 2296-6463 DO - 10.3389/feart.2024.1240784 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34777544 ID - 34777544 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) [K125171, FK135115, 2019-2.1.7-ERA-NET-2020-00003]; Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences; EU under the QuantERA eDICT grant; Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden Funding text: This work was supported by the National Research, Developmentand Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors),FK135115 (MH) and 2019-2.1.7-ERA-NET-2020-00003 (GD). MH was supported by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. GD was supported by the EU under the QuantERA eDICT grant. IJ was supported by the Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden(Visitors Program). DAS:The datasets presented in this study can be found in online repositories. The names of the repository/repositories and accession number(s) can be found below: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6967247, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6967253, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6966993, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6968486. AB - We address the hypothetical question of whether an increasing total solar irradiance (TSI) trend, without anthropogenic contributions, could be sufficient to explain the ongoing global warming. To this end, the intermediate-complexity climate model PlaSim is used. To consider the total internal variability, we present a set of ensemble simulations, with different forcing histories in TSI and CO2 concentration, that have converged sufficiently tightly to the relevant probability distributions to provide a satisfactory bound on any spurious trend possibly arising from a sampling bias; similar bounds on any other unforced contributions to ensemble mean trends are also estimated. A key point is the consideration, among the forcing histories, the steepest increasing trend in TSI that is still consistent with observations according to a recent study; thereby, we essentially revisit corresponding TSI reconstructions, more than 20 years after their last modeling-based evaluation, by improving the analysis through taking care of all possible sources of error or uncertainty and incorporating data that have become available since then. Without any change in CO2 concentration, our TSI trend (i.e., and upper bound on actual TSI trends) is found to be insufficient to produce outcomes compatible with the observational record in global mean surface temperature (GMST) with a nonnegligible probability. We formalize our statement for quantifiers of GMST trends through evaluating their distributions over the ensemble, and we speculate that the hypothesis about the exclusive role of an increasing TSI remains implausible even beyond our particular model setup. At the same time, if we consider a constant TSI, and the observational record in CO2 concentration is applied as forcing, the simulation results and the recorded GMST match well. While we currently need to leave the question of a precise attribution open, we conclude by pointing out that an attribution of the ongoing global warming to an increasing TSI alone could be made plausible only if a bias in the set of land-based instrumental temperature measurements were increasing more rapidly than commonly estimated; an assessment of the latter possibility is out of the scope of our study, as well as addressing solar forcing mechanisms beyond the effect of TSI. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Jánosi, Dániel AU - Tél, Tamás TI - An ensemble based approach for the effect of climate change on the dynamics of extremes JF - FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE J2 - FRONT EARTH SC-SWITZ VL - 11 PY - 2023 PG - 11 SN - 2296-6463 DO - 10.3389/feart.2023.1267473 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34282764 ID - 34282764 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), [K125171, FK135115, K128584]; Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH); Jnos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences; New National Excellence Program [NKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199]; NKFIH office Funding text: The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), FK135115 (MH), and K128584 (DJ). MH was supported by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. DJ benefited from the New National Excellence Program (& Uacute;NKP) scholarship of the NKFIH office, under grant no. UNKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199.r The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), FK135115 (MH), and K128584 (DJ). MH was supported by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. DJ benefited from the New National Excellence Program (& Uacute;NKP) scholarship of the NKFIH office, under grant no. & Uacute;NKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás AU - Haszpra, Tímea TI - Where are the coexisting parallel climates? Large ensemble climate projections from the point of view of chaos theory T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2023 SP - EMS2023-193 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34265592 ID - 34265592 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bozóki, Tamás AU - Sátori, Gabriella AU - Williams, E. AU - Guha, A. AU - Liu, Y. AU - Steinbach, Péter AU - Leal, A. AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Atkinson, M. AU - Beggan, C. D. AU - DiGangi, E. AU - Koloskov, A. AU - Kulak, A. AU - LaPierre, J. AU - Milling, D. K. AU - Mlynarczyk, J. AU - Neska, A. AU - Potapov, A. AU - Raita, T. AU - Rawat, R. AU - Said, R. AU - Sinha, A. K. AU - Yampolski, Y. TI - Day‐To‐Day Quantification of Changes in Global Lightning Activity Based on Schumann Resonances JF - JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: ATMOSPHERES J2 - J GEOPHYS RES ATMOS VL - 128 PY - 2023 IS - 11 PG - 18 SN - 2169-897X DO - 10.1029/2023JD038557 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33917923 ID - 33917923 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás AU - Haszpra, Tímea TI - Where are the coexisting parallel climates? Large ensemble climate projections from the point of view of chaos theory JF - CHAOS J2 - CHAOS VL - 33 PY - 2023 IS - 3 PG - 9 SN - 1054-1500 DO - 10.1063/5.0136719 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33703815 ID - 33703815 N1 - ELKH-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Department of Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Cited By :1 Export Date: 27 February 2024 Correspondence Address: Herein, M.; ELKH-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Hungary; email: matyas.herein@ttk.elte.hu AB - We review the recent results of large ensemble climate projections considering them to be the simulations of chaotic systems. The quick spread of an initially localized ensemble in the first weeks after initialization is an appearance of the butterfly effect, illustrating the unpredictability of the dynamics. We show that the growth rate of uncertainty (an analog of the Lyapunov exponent) can be determined right after initialization. The next phase corresponds to a convergence of the no longer localized ensemble to the time-dependent climate attractor and requires a much longer time. After convergence takes place, the ensemble faithfully represents the climate dynamics. Concerning a credible simulation, the observed signal should then wander within the spread of the converged ensemble all the time, i.e., to behave just as any of the ensemble members. As a manifestation of the chaotic-like climate dynamics, one can imagine that beyond the single, observed time-dependent climate, a plethora of parallel climate realizations exists. Converged climate ensembles also define the probability distribution by which the physical quantities of the different climate realizations occur. Large ensemble simulations were shown earlier to be credible in the sense formulated. Here, in addition, an extended credibility condition is given, which requires the ensemble to be a converged ensemble, valid also for low-dimensional models. Interestingly, to the best of our knowledge, no low-order physical or engineering systems subjected to time-dependent forcings are known for which a comparison between simulation and experiment would be available. As illustrative examples, the CESM1-LE climate model and a chaotic pendulum are taken. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Galsa, Attila AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Szijártó, Márk AU - Süle, Bálint AU - Lenkey, László TI - A köpenykonvekciótól a felszín alatti vízáramlás numerikus modellezéséig: In memoriam Cserepes László (1952–2002) JF - MAGYAR GEOFIZIKA J2 - MAGYAR GEOFIZIKA VL - 63 PY - 2022 IS - 4 SP - 158 EP - 169 PG - 12 SN - 0025-0120 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33761685 ID - 33761685 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Herein, Mátyás TI - Légköri szennyeződések terjedésének vizsgálata sokasági éghajlati szimulációkban változó éghajlat esetén T2 - 48. Meteorológiai Tudományos Napok, az ülések programja PY - 2022 SP - 14 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33703355 ID - 33703355 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Kaszás, Bálint TI - When the Earth goes white: the Snowball Earth attractor T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2022 SP - 1 EP - 1 PG - 1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33112956 ID - 33112956 AB - EMS2022-394 LA - English DB - MTMT ER -