TY - CONF AU - Jánosi, Dániel AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás TI - An ensemble based approach for the effect of climate change on the dynamics of extremes T2 - EGU General Assembly 2024 : abstracts PB - European Geosciences Union (EGU) C1 - Wien PY - 2024 DO - 10.5194/egusphere-egu24-6164 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34816219 ID - 34816219 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Drótos, Gábor AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Jánosi, Imre Miklós TI - Converged ensemble simulations of climate: Potential trends in total solar irradiance cannot explain global warming alone JF - FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE J2 - FRONT EARTH SC-SWITZ VL - 12 PY - 2024 SN - 2296-6463 DO - 10.3389/feart.2024.1240784 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34777544 ID - 34777544 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Jánosi, Dániel AU - Tél, Tamás TI - An ensemble based approach for the effect of climate change on the dynamics of extremes JF - FRONTIERS IN EARTH SCIENCE J2 - FRONT EARTH SC-SWITZ VL - 11 PY - 2023 PG - 11 SN - 2296-6463 DO - 10.3389/feart.2023.1267473 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34282764 ID - 34282764 N1 - Funding Agency and Grant Number: The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), [K125171, FK135115, K128584]; Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH); Jnos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences; New National Excellence Program [NKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199]; NKFIH office Funding text: The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), FK135115 (MH), and K128584 (DJ). MH was supported by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. DJ benefited from the New National Excellence Program (& Uacute;NKP) scholarship of the NKFIH office, under grant no. UNKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199.r The author(s) declare financial support was received for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article. This work was supported by the Hungarian National Research, Development and Innovation Office (NKFIH) under Grants K125171 (all authors), FK135115 (MH), and K128584 (DJ). MH was supported by the Janos Bolyai Research Scholarship of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences. DJ benefited from the New National Excellence Program (& Uacute;NKP) scholarship of the NKFIH office, under grant no. & Uacute;NKP-22-3-I-ELTE-199. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás AU - Haszpra, Tímea TI - Where are the coexisting parallel climates? Large ensemble climate projections from the point of view of chaos theory T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2023 SP - EMS2023-193 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34265592 ID - 34265592 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Bozóki, Tamás AU - Sátori, Gabriella AU - Williams, E. AU - Guha, A. AU - Liu, Y. AU - Steinbach, Péter AU - Leal, A. AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Atkinson, M. AU - Beggan, C. D. AU - DiGangi, E. AU - Koloskov, A. AU - Kulak, A. AU - LaPierre, J. AU - Milling, D. K. AU - Mlynarczyk, J. AU - Neska, A. AU - Potapov, A. AU - Raita, T. AU - Rawat, R. AU - Said, R. AU - Sinha, A. K. AU - Yampolski, Y. TI - Day‐To‐Day Quantification of Changes in Global Lightning Activity Based on Schumann Resonances JF - JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH: ATMOSPHERES J2 - J GEOPHYS RES ATMOS VL - 128 PY - 2023 IS - 11 PG - 18 SN - 2169-897X DO - 10.1029/2023JD038557 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33917923 ID - 33917923 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Tél, Tamás AU - Haszpra, Tímea TI - Where are the coexisting parallel climates? Large ensemble climate projections from the point of view of chaos theory JF - CHAOS J2 - CHAOS VL - 33 PY - 2023 IS - 3 PG - 9 SN - 1054-1500 DO - 10.1063/5.0136719 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33703815 ID - 33703815 N1 - ELKH-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Department of Theoretical Physics, Eötvös University, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Budapest, H-1117, Hungary Cited By :1 Export Date: 27 February 2024 Correspondence Address: Herein, M.; ELKH-ELTE Theoretical Physics Research Group, Pázmány P. stny. 1/A, Hungary; email: matyas.herein@ttk.elte.hu AB - We review the recent results of large ensemble climate projections considering them to be the simulations of chaotic systems. The quick spread of an initially localized ensemble in the first weeks after initialization is an appearance of the butterfly effect, illustrating the unpredictability of the dynamics. We show that the growth rate of uncertainty (an analog of the Lyapunov exponent) can be determined right after initialization. The next phase corresponds to a convergence of the no longer localized ensemble to the time-dependent climate attractor and requires a much longer time. After convergence takes place, the ensemble faithfully represents the climate dynamics. Concerning a credible simulation, the observed signal should then wander within the spread of the converged ensemble all the time, i.e., to behave just as any of the ensemble members. As a manifestation of the chaotic-like climate dynamics, one can imagine that beyond the single, observed time-dependent climate, a plethora of parallel climate realizations exists. Converged climate ensembles also define the probability distribution by which the physical quantities of the different climate realizations occur. Large ensemble simulations were shown earlier to be credible in the sense formulated. Here, in addition, an extended credibility condition is given, which requires the ensemble to be a converged ensemble, valid also for low-dimensional models. Interestingly, to the best of our knowledge, no low-order physical or engineering systems subjected to time-dependent forcings are known for which a comparison between simulation and experiment would be available. As illustrative examples, the CESM1-LE climate model and a chaotic pendulum are taken. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Galsa, Attila AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Szijártó, Márk AU - Süle, Bálint AU - Lenkey, László TI - A köpenykonvekciótól a felszín alatti vízáramlás numerikus modellezéséig: In memoriam Cserepes László (1952–2002) JF - MAGYAR GEOFIZIKA J2 - MAGYAR GEOFIZIKA VL - 63 PY - 2022 IS - 4 SP - 158 EP - 169 PG - 12 SN - 0025-0120 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33761685 ID - 33761685 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Herein, Mátyás TI - Légköri szennyeződések terjedésének vizsgálata sokasági éghajlati szimulációkban változó éghajlat esetén T2 - 48. Meteorológiai Tudományos Napok, az ülések programja PY - 2022 SP - 14 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33703355 ID - 33703355 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - CONF AU - Herein, Mátyás AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Kaszás, Bálint TI - When the Earth goes white: the Snowball Earth attractor T2 - EMS Annual Meeting Abstracts PY - 2022 SP - 1 EP - 1 PG - 1 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33112956 ID - 33112956 AB - EMS2022-394 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - GEN AU - Haszpra, Tímea AU - Topál, Dániel AU - Herein, Mátyás TI - A sokaság-szemlélet: távkapcsolatok időfüggésének meghatározása változó éghajlat esetén PY - 2021 SP - 10 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32538706 ID - 32538706 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER -