TY - JOUR AU - Duernecker, Georg AU - Herrendorf, Berthold AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Structural Change within the Services Sector and the Future of Cost Disease JF - JOURNAL OF THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION J2 - J EUR ECON ASSOC VL - 2023 PY - 2023 SP - 1 EP - 46 PG - 46 SN - 1542-4766 DO - 10.1093/jeea/jvad030 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/34149793 ID - 34149793 AB - In his seminal work, Baumol observed that developed economies suffer from cost disease, i.e., aggregate productivity growth falls because structural change reallocates production to services with low productivity growth. We document that cost disease importantly contributed to the productivity growth slowdown in the postwar U.S. To assess how severe cost disease may become, we build a model of structural change among the goods sector and broad services sectors. Calibrating the model to the postwar U.S. implies that broad categories of services are substitutes and the services with low productivity growth do not take over production. Simulating the calibrated model forward implies that future cost disease will be less severe than the past one. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herrendorf, Berthold AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Endogenous sector-biased technological change and industrial policy JF - ECONOMIC MODELLING J2 - ECON MODEL VL - 113 PY - 2022 PG - 20 SN - 0264-9993 DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105875 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33247503 ID - 33247503 AB - We build a model of structural transformation with endogenous sector-biased technological change. We show that if the return to specialization is larger in the goods sector than in the service sector, then the equilibrium has the following properties: aggregate growth is balanced; the service sector receives more innovation but the goods sector experiences more productivity growth; structural transformation takes place from goods to services. Compared to the efficient allocation the laissez-faire equilibrium has too much labor in the goods sector, implying that optimal industrial policy should aim to increase, not decrease, the pace of structural transformation. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Duernecker, G AU - Herrendorf, B AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - The productivity growth slowdown and Kaldor's growth facts JF - JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL J2 - J ECON DYN CONTROL VL - 130 PY - 2021 PG - 20 SN - 0165-1889 DO - 10.1016/j.jedc.2021.104200 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32326303 ID - 32326303 AB - The productivity growth slowdown that started in the 1970s presents a challenge to Kaldor's growth facts and the one-sector growth model. We ask: What natural modification of the growth model can generate a prolonged productivity growth slowdown? We show that the two-sector version with separate consumption and investment sectors has a balanced growth path equilibrium along which productivity growth slows down if two conditions hold: real GDP is measured with the Fisher index; productivity growth in the consumption sector slows down. We also show that real GDP measured with the Fisher index is a welfare measure in the two-sector version. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herrendorf, B AU - Rogerson, R AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Structural change in investment and consumption — a unified analysis JF - REVIEW OF ECONOMIC STUDIES J2 - REV ECON STUD VL - 88 PY - 2021 IS - 3 SP - 1311 EP - 1346 PG - 36 SN - 0034-6527 DO - 10.1093/restud/rdaa013 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32326188 ID - 32326188 AB - The structural-change literature typically assumes that investment is produced in manufacturing. We establish that this assumption is counterfactual: in the postwar U.S., the share of services value added in investment expenditure has been steadily growing. We develop a new model that features structural change in investment and consumption, characterize its equilibrium properties, and provide empirical support for it. We establish that modelling structural change in investment leads to three novel insights: constant TFP growth in all sectors is inconsistent with the existence of aggregate balanced growth with structural change; the sector with the slowest TFP growth absorbs all resources asymptotically; technical change is endogenously investment-biased. LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Luintel, K B AU - Matthews, K AU - Minford, L AU - Valentinyi, Ákos AU - Wang, B TI - The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China JF - ECONOMIC MODELLING J2 - ECON MODEL VL - 90 PY - 2020 SP - 117 EP - 134 PG - 18 SN - 0264-9993 DO - 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.024 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32471129 ID - 32471129 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - GEN AU - Pappa, E AU - Valentinyi, Ákos AU - Brueckner, M TI - Local autonomy and government spending multipliers: evidence from European regions PY - 2019 PG - 66 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/33720460 ID - 33720460 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Herrendorf, B AU - Rogerson, R AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Growth and the Kaldor Facts JF - REVIEW - FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS J2 - FED RESERVE BANK ST VL - 101 PY - 2019 IS - 4 SP - 259 EP - 276 PG - 18 SN - 0014-9187 DO - 10.20955/r.101.259-76 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/32471126 ID - 32471126 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - BOOK AU - Herrendorf, B AU - Rogerson, R AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Structural Change in Investment and Consumption. a Unified Approach TS - a Unified Approach T3 - NBER Working Paper Series ; 24568. ET - 0 PB - National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) CY - Cambridge, Massachusetts PY - 2018 SP - 34 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/30380465 ID - 30380465 LA - English DB - MTMT ER - TY - JOUR AU - Dénes, Ferenc AU - Endrész, Marianna AU - Kaderják, Péter AU - Valentinyi, Ákos AU - Vályogos, Győző TI - „A hiány” visszhangja Keleten és Nyugaton. (A recenziók tükrében) TS - (A recenziók tükrében) JF - KÖZ-GAZDASÁG J2 - KÖZ-GAZDASÁG VL - 13 PY - 2018 IS - 1 SP - 121 EP - 131 PG - 11 SN - 1788-0696 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3342206 ID - 3342206 N1 - Eredeti közlemény: 3326118 LA - Hungarian DB - MTMT ER - TY - BOOK AU - Duernecker, G AU - Herrendorf, B AU - Valentinyi, Ákos TI - Quantity Measurement and Balanced Growth in Multi-Sector Growth Models T3 - Discussion Papers of Centre for Regional Studies of Hungarian Academy of Sciences, ISSN 0238–2008 ; Nr. 12300. ET - 0 PB - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) CY - London PY - 2017 SP - 31 UR - https://m2.mtmt.hu/api/publication/3317697 ID - 3317697 LA - English DB - MTMT ER -