Analysis of production, fiscal, and external sector channels of economic growth in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector

https://m2.mtmt.hu/ hun 2026-07-28 22:03 JournalArticle 36985580 APPROVED true 0 false 2026-04-29T09:26:19.957+0000 2026-03-16T13:32:18.540+0000 2026-03-03T09:06:19.275+0000 true 10046295 Feketéné Gyarmati Andrea /api/admin/10046295 Admin Feketéné Gyarmati Andrea (ÓE 5 admin) true 10046295 2026-03-05T13:08:05.143+0000 2026-03-05T13:08:05.143+0000 true false true 24 24 /api/publicationtype/24 PublicationType Folyóiratcikk 1 true 24 JournalArticle true 10000059 Article true 24 24 /api/publicationtype/24 PublicationType Folyóiratcikk 1 true 24 JournalArticle /api/subtype/10000059 Szakcikk SubType Szakcikk (Folyóiratcikk) 101 true 10000059 true 1 /api/category/1 Category Tudományos true 1 Karácsony, Peter Analysis of production, fiscal, and external sector channels of economic growth in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector true false /api/journal/41815 REVIEWED PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES IN MANAGEMENT 1727-7051 1810-5467 true false 41815 true 41815 true 1727-7051 1810-5467 Journal FOREIGN 24 1 438 453 438 16 2026 Type of the article: Research ArticleAbstractGiven the instability of global energy markets and recurring price shocks, it is increasingly important to assess the sustainability of economic growth in countries heavily dependent on oil and gas, such as Kazakhstan. The purpose of this study is to assess the impact of the oil and gas sector’s production, fiscal and external sector transmission channels on Kazakhstan’s economic growth during 2010–2024. The empirical base includes official data from the Bureau of National Statistics of Kazakhstan, the Ministry of Finance, and the World Bank, as well as economic indicators related to exchange-rate dynamics and inflation. The study employs a combination of cointegration analysis, vector error correction models (VECM), and short-term ordinary least squares (OLS) specifications. The results show that oil production and GDP are linked by a stable long-term relationship, with the error-correction term indicating that about 24% of deviations from equilibrium are eliminated per year. Gas production emerges as a key short-term growth factor: a one-thousand-ton increase in gas production is associated with a 5.26 billion tenge (11.8 million USD) in GDP (p = 0.002). Tax revenues from the oil and gas sector exert a moderate positive effect on economic dynamics (p = 0.065), reflecting fiscal sensitivity to external conditions. The external sector channel exhibits the strongest short-term effect: a one-unit depreciation of tenge is associated with an average increase of 2.61 × 10⁵ tenge in nominal GDP (p < 0.01). Overall, the results indicate that Kazakhstan’s economic growth is shaped by long-term dependence on production and short-term transmission of price and financial shocks.AcknowledgmentsThis paper has been funded by the Science Committee MSHE RK (Grant “Strategy for the structural and technological modernization of the basic sectors of the economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, taking into account ESG approaches: criteria, implementation mechanisms, and forecast scenarios” BR24993089). true true 2026 true true true false true false NONE 2026-04-29 false 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Q2 B nemzetközi false false false false 2026-03-02T09:06:24.496+0000 Marketing, Menedzsment és Módszertani Intézet (ÓE / KGK); Üzleti Tudományok, Vezetés és Szervezés Tanszék (KRE / GESZK / GVI) 2 40 2 5 0 false Language 10002 /api/language/10002 Angol Angol English true 2 true PersonAuthorship 134449699 /api/authorship/134449699 Karácsony, Peter [Karácsony, Péter (gazdaságtudomány,...), szerző] Marketing, Menedzsment és Módszertani Intézet (ÓE / KGK) 1 0.2 true false false Author 10027422 /api/author/10027422 Karácsony Péter (gazdaságtudomány, agrárökonómia) Karácsony Péter true 10027422 true Karácsony Peter true false false AuthorshipType 1 /api/authorshiptype/1 Szerző 0 true 0 true false true PersonAuthorship 134449700 /api/authorship/134449700 Uralova, Aliya 2 0.2 false false false Uralova Aliya true false false AuthorshipType 1 /api/authorshiptype/1 Szerző 0 true 0 true false true PersonAuthorship 134449701 /api/authorship/134449701 Bekbossinova, Assel 3 0.2 false false false Bekbossinova Assel true false false AuthorshipType 1 /api/authorshiptype/1 Szerző 0 true 0 true false true PersonAuthorship 134449702 /api/authorship/134449702 Konyrbekov, Medet 4 0.2 false false false Konyrbekov Medet true false false AuthorshipType 1 /api/authorshiptype/1 Szerző 0 true 0 true false true PersonAuthorship 134449703 /api/authorship/134449703 Valko, Vivien [Valkó, Vivien (Vállalati gazdasá...), szerző] Üzleti Tudományok, Vezetés és Szervezés Tanszék (KRE / GESZK / GVI) 5 0.2 false true false Author 10081411 /api/author/10081411 Valkó Vivien (Vállalati gazdaságtan és menedzsment, Emberi Erőforrás Menedzsment) Valkó Vivien true true Valko Vivien true false false AuthorshipType 1 /api/authorshiptype/1 Szerző 0 true 0 true false true PublicationIdentifier 31565586 /api/publicationidentifier/31565586 DOI: 10.21511/ppm.24(1).2026.29 PlainSource 6 /api/publicationsource/6 DOI PublicationSourceType 10001 /api/publicationsourcetype/10001 DOI true true true DOI DOI https://doi.org/@@@ true true 6 true 10.21511/ppm.24(1).2026.29 https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24%281%29.2026.29 false true PublicationIdentifier 31647158 /api/publicationidentifier/31647158 Scopus: 105031942432 PlainSource 3 /api/publicationsource/3 Scopus PublicationSourceType 10003 /api/publicationsourcetype/10003 Indexelő adatbázis false true true Scopus Scopus http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?origin=inward&eid=2-s2.0-@@@ true true 3 true IDENTICAL 105031942432 http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?origin=inward&eid=2-s2.0-105031942432 true true PublicationIdentifier 31565587 /api/publicationidentifier/31565587 Egyéb URL: https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problems-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-508/analysis-of-production-fiscal-and-external-sector-channels-of-economic-growth-in-kazakhstan-s-oil-and-gas-sector PlainSource 40 /api/publicationsource/40 Egyéb URL PublicationSourceType 10006 /api/publicationsourcetype/10006 Link true true true Egyéb URL Other URL @@@ true true 40 true https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problems-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-508/analysis-of-production-fiscal-and-external-sector-channels-of-economic-growth-in-kazakhstan-s-oil-and-gas-sector https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problems-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-508/analysis-of-production-fiscal-and-external-sector-channels-of-economic-growth-in-kazakhstan-s-oil-and-gas-sector false true Classification 13076 /api/classification/13076 Gazdálkodástudományok true true MtaRating 11508186 /api/mtarating/11508186 IX. 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(2026) PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES IN MANAGEMENT 1727-7051 1810-5467 24 1 438-453<div class="JournalArticle Publication long-list"> <div class="authors"> <img title="Forrásközlemény" style="float: left" src="/frontend/resources/grid/publication-core-icon.png"> <img title="Idézőközlemény" style="float: left" src="/frontend/resources/grid/publication-citation-icon.png"> <div class="autype autype0"> <span class="author-name" mtid="10027422"><a href="/gui2/?type=authors&mode=browse&sel=10027422" target="_blank">Karácsony Peter (<span class="authorship-author-name">Karácsony Péter</span> <span class="authorAux-mtmt"> gazdaságtudomány, agrárökonómia</span>) </a> </span> <span class="author-affil"><span title="Óbudai Egyetem">ÓE</span>/<span title="Keleti Károly Gazdasági Kar">KGK</span>/Marketing, Menedzsment és Módszertani Intézet</span> ;    <span class="author-name" >Uralova Aliya </span> ;    <span class="author-name" >Bekbossinova Assel </span> ;    <span class="author-name" >Konyrbekov Medet </span> ;    <span class="author-name" mtid="10081411"><a href="/gui2/?type=authors&mode=browse&sel=10081411" target="_blank">Valko Vivien (<span class="authorship-author-name">Valkó Vivien</span> <span class="authorAux-mtmt"> Vállalati gazdaságtan és menedzsment, Emberi Er...</span>) </a> </span> <span class="author-affil"><span title="Károli Gáspár Református Egyetem">KRE</span>/<span title="Gazdaságtudományi, Egészségtudományi és szociális Kar">GESZK</span>/<span title="Gazdaság- és Vezetéstudományi Intézet">GVI</span>/Üzleti Tudományok, Vezetés és Szervezés Tanszék</span> </div> </div> <div class="title"><a href="/gui2/?mode=browse&params=publication;36985580" target="_blank">Analysis of production, fiscal, and external sector channels of economic growth in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas sector</a></div> <div> <span class="journal-title">PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES IN MANAGEMENT</span> <span class="journal-issn">(<a target="_blank" href="https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1727-7051">1727-7051</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://portal.issn.org/resource/ISSN/1810-5467">1810-5467</a>)</span>: <span class="journal-volume">24</span> <span class="journal-issue">1</span> <span class="page"> pp 438-453 </span> <span class="year">(2026)</span> </div> <div class="pub-footer"> <span class="language" xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/html">Nyelv: Angol | </span> <span class="identifiers"> <span class="id identifier oa_none" title="none"> <a style="color:black" title="10.21511/ppm.24(1).2026.29" target="_blank" href="https://doi.org/10.21511/ppm.24%281%29.2026.29"> DOI </a> </span> <span class="id identifier oa_none" title="none"> <a style="color:blue" title="105031942432" target="_blank" href="http://www.scopus.com/record/display.url?origin=inward&eid=2-s2.0-105031942432"> Scopus </a> </span> <span class="id identifier oa_none" title="none"> <a style="color:black" title="https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problems-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-508/analysis-of-production-fiscal-and-external-sector-channels-of-economic-growth-in-kazakhstan-s-oil-and-gas-sector" target="_blank" href="https://www.businessperspectives.org/index.php/journals/problems-and-perspectives-in-management/issue-508/analysis-of-production-fiscal-and-external-sector-channels-of-economic-growth-in-kazakhstan-s-oil-and-gas-sector"> Egyéb URL </a> </span> </span> <OnlyViewableByAuthor><div class="ratings"> <div class="journal-subject">Folyóirat szakterülete: Scopus - 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