Study analyzes the potential for extending the length of stay of tourists by optimizing
tourism routes based on architectural heritage sites located in the Historic Center
of Bukhara. Using GIS technologies (QGIS 3.40), the spatial distribution of 92 cultural
heritage sites was examined and analyses such as K-means clustering, Shortest Path,
and Service Area were conducted. For each cluster, optimal one-day walking routes
were developed and the total walking distance and duration were calculated.Moreover,
based on real statistical data from 2020-2024, the number of foreign tourist arrivals
to Bukhara from 2025 to 2030 was forecasted using the ARIMA(0,0,0) model. The model
results indicate that over 21.8 million tourists are expected to visit during this
period. If the average length of stay is extended from 3 to 4 days, a further USD
83.33 in revenue may be generated per tourist. This could result in approximately
USD 1.694 billion in additional income by 2030.The findings of the study serve as
a foundationfor strategic planning in developing sustainable cultural tourism
in Bukhara, optimizing service infrastructure, efficiently managing tourist
flows and ensuring the rational use of heritage sites. Outcomes also bring
into line with the broader frameworks of circular tourism and the transition toward
a circular society, where heritage resources are reused, community benefits are maximized,
sustainability principles are reinforced.
