Thermal Environment Analysis for Energy Efficiency and Heritage Conservation via Regression Trees and Random Forests

Preserving historic buildings with significant cultural heritage presents complex challenges, requiring a careful balance between energy efficiency, conservation of artworks, and visitor comfort. This study focuses on the 12th-century Church of Santa Maria Annunziata in L'Aquila, Italy, where maintaining stable environmental conditions is crucial for safeguarding valuable paintings and wooden artifacts. Despite the sensitivity of these artworks, the church currently operates without a dedicated HVAC system. To analyze the indoor thermal environment, a multidisciplinary approach was adopted, incorporating on-site measurements, statistical evaluation, and predictive modeling over different forecasting periods. The results indicate that temperature levels within the church often stray from the ideal range for artwork conservation. As a result, there is an urgent need to assess and implement an appropriate HVAC solution to create a more stable indoor microclimate. © 2025 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.