The increasing frequency and intensity of Saharan Dust Events (SDEs) in Europe poses
a significant challenge to the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) energy systems. This
study examines SDE effects on solar power in five Mediterranean countries – Portugal,
Spain, France, Italy, and Greece – from 2019 to 2023, using dust data, PV statistics,
and meteorological analysis. The findings of this study demonstrate that SDEs reduce
PV output by an average of 25–40 %, with losses exceeding 50 % during extreme events.
In Portugal this decline was 10.1–29.3 %, 16.3–19.8 % in Spain; 4.4–40.5 % in France;
13.9–36.8 % in Italy and 20.1–40.9 % in Greece, during the highest dust levels. Solar
irradiance drops are due to both dust-induced attenuation and increased cirrus cloud
formation from enhanced ice nucleation. Analysis of recent dust storms shows consistent
day-ahead PV forecast errors, with underestimations up to −15 % in Portugal and Spain,
and overestimations up to +10 % in Italy and Greece, highlighting the need for improved
models that incorporate aerosol-cloud interactions. The results highlight the need
for improved forecasting that includes real-time dust monitoring and cloud processes.
As SDEs increase with climate change, accounting for dust-related uncertainties is
crucial for reliable grid operation and solar power planning in southern Europe.
