The growing demand for clean and sustainable energy sources has prompted the investigation
of numerous renewable and ecologically friendly options. Among these, geothermal energy
is particularly noteworthy because of its widespread availability, compact size, and
consistent, weather-independent power production. A geothermal play fairway analysis
(GPFA) model was created for the study area, which is located in Békés county, southeastern
Hungary. The GPFA model approach in the current study is the first model developed
in Hungary to achieve three main goals. firstly, to quantitatively assess the geothermal
potential, secondly, to identify the most favorable areas for geothermal exploration
and development, and thirdly, to evaluate the corresponding risk levels in the study
area. The study focuses on identifying and assessing three main risk components associated
with exploitable geothermal systems in the study area. The risk parameters consist
of the heat source, reservoir fracture permeability, and seal. Advanced 3D seismic
interpretation, geographic information system (GIS), and 3DHIP (heat in place) calculator
techniques are used to evaluate subsurface structural and thermal models. Two phases
of seismic interpretation are used; conventional interpretation phase focused on conventional
seismic data interpretation and advanced attribute generation phase where various
seismic attribute cube volumes are generated. Common Risk Segment Maps (CRS) for each
risk parameter are created by combining data from all the elements contributing to
that risk using GIS toolbox. The resulted CRS maps of the study area three risk parameters
are summed to produce a Composite Common Risk Segment Map (CCRS) map. Based on the
constructed CCRS map and the developed GPFA model, the study area holds valuable untapped
geothermal potential, poses varying risk levels associated with geothermal exploration
and development. The amount of risk resulting from the three risk components is not
equal, and the reservoir fracture permeability is the main risk factor. The GPFA model
is successfully narrowed down an expansive exploration area of around 350 km 2 to
just 4 highly promising targets with high geothermal favorability and low risk as
future drilling targets. The constructed 3D thermal capacity model indicates that
the average heat content in the study area is estimated to be 65,450 Petajoules per
square kilometer (PJ/km 2 ), with a recoverable heat energy of 6090 megawatt thermal
per square kilometer (MWth/km 2 ). The recoverable heat for the four selected targets
is estimated under different production scenarios: a 30-year plan, a 20-year plan,
and a 10-year plan and it ranges from 7.5 to 32 MWth/km 2 , 11 to 48 MWth/km2, 22.2
to 96.8 MWth/km 2 respectively. The findings of this study have made important contributions
to the field of geothermal exploration approaches and offer valuable insights for
making well-informed decisions about sustainable energy development in the study area.
