Renewable energy is an energy resource that can be used continuously. At present,
international oil prices continue to rise, the problem of global climate change is
becoming increasingly prominent, and renewable energy and clean energy have ushered
in a new round of development opportunities. Based on the new gray prediction model,
this paper forecasts the consumption of renewable energy and further analyzes the
sustainable development of renewable energy. In this paper, the combinatorial optimization
method of cumulative order, background value coefficient, and initial conditions,
parameter optimization combination, parameter combinatorial optimization process of
the gray prediction model, and parameter optimization mechanism based on the PSO algorithm
are proposed, and the reduction error analysis is carried out. The consumption of
wind power and photovoltaic renewable energy is forecasted, and three different forecasting
methods as exponential smoothing method, time series analysis method, and new gray
forecasting method are compared, and the wind speed, irradiation intensity, and load
are forecasted by these three different forecasting methods. Compared with the time
series analysis method and the exponential smoothing method, the RMSE of the new grey
prediction method is reduced by 127.12% and 160.59%, and the error rate is reduced
by 3.16% and 4%, respectively. Based on the consumption forecast of renewable energy,
this paper analyzes its sustainability from three directions economy, resource supply,
and environment, and finally gives energy policy recommendations.
