Keywords: Economic Recovery, COVID-19 Pandemic, Visegrád Group (V4), NUTS2 Regions,
Jánossy Trendline Theory
Abstract
The study investigates the economic recovery of the NUTS2 regions in the Visegrád
Group (V4) countries following the COVID-19 pandemic. The authors apply Ferenc Jánossy's
trendline theory, which posits that economic recovery is considered complete when
development levels align with pre-crisis trends rather than merely reaching pre-pandemic
levels. The analysis focuses on GDP per capita adjusted for purchasing power parity
(PPP) in these regions to determine the duration and factors influencing recovery.
The research also examines the extent to which the lag of peripheral areas changed
as a result of the health crisis in each country and region. The study highlights
the impacts of different regional economic policies by analyzing regional economic
indicators and their deviations from projected trends during 2020-2022. The results
reveal significant regional differences. Regions with diversified economies, strong
agricultural sectors, or rapid adaptability, such as Łódzkie in Poland and Bratislava
in Slovakia, performed relatively well. In contrast, areas dependent on tourism and
services, which suffered significantly from pandemic-related restrictions, faced more
significant challenges. The analysis emphasizes the importance of sectoral diversity
and adaptability in mitigating the impacts of economic crises. The study provides
a detailed analysis of similarities and differences among the V4 countries. For example,
Slovakia and Hungary experienced the crisis's impacts to varying degrees, partly due
to their economic policy decisions and structural characteristics. In Slovakia, the
Bratislava region quickly adapted to the changes, while Budapest's dominance became
even more pronounced in Hungary. However, the relative underdevelopment of rural areas
increased, particularly in regions where industry and agriculture were less able to
adapt to the crisis's challenges. The research also highlights that the economic crisis
triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic had different effects on various industries and
regions. Regions heavily reliant on international tourism, such as Prague or the Balaton
region in Hungary, experienced significant declines. In contrast, areas dominated
by agriculture and industry remained relatively stable, as these sectors were able
to adapt quickly to the new situation.
