Introduction: There is increasing interest in developing mathematical and computational
models to forecast adverse events in physiological systems. Examples include falls,
the onset of fatal cardiac arrhythmias, and adverse surgical outcomes. However, the
dynamics of physiological systems are known to be exceedingly complex and perhaps
even chaotic. Since no model can be perfect, it becomes important to understand how
forecasting can be improved, especially when training data is limited. An adverse
event that can be readily studied in the laboratory is the occurrence of stick falls
when humans attempt to balance a stick on their fingertips. Over the last 20 years,
this task has been extensively investigated experimentally, and presently detailed
mathematical models are available.
