The opinions regarding the impact of the domestic league's competitive balance (CB)
on continental club competition sporting success are divided. Through the data of
the last 18 seasons (2004/05–2021/22) and 576 games, we have examined whether the
teams from a more balanced domestic league can achieve more unexpected results in
the Champions League group stage. The current study aims to contribute to previously
published literature by applying the market value-based surprise index. The results
of panel logistic regression models suggest that a lower domestic league's CB in a
given season can support teams to overperform in the international field in the same
season.
