Supposed Effects of Wetland Restoration on Hydrological Conditions and the Provisioning Ecosystem Services—A Model-Based Case Study at a Hungarian Lowland Catchment

Climate change and water scarcity increase the vulnerability of crop production and other ecosystem services (ES) in flood-protected lowlands under a continental climate. Restoration of wetlands leads to a higher water-buffering capacity of the landscape, strengthening various ecosystem services, and fostering adaptation to climatic, ecological, and agricultural challenges. Such restoration efforts require extensive land-use change, leading to trade-offs in provisioning and regulating ES. However, knowledge is limited about these situations, especially in the case of lowland areas. Here, we introduce a hydrological analysis in a 243 km2 flood-protected catchment in the Great Hungarian Plain, mapping the potential hydrological effects of water-retention scenarios on groundwater levels. We point out how the simulated groundwater levels will be used for estimating the changes in crop yields and tree growth (provisioning services). The introduced hydrological analysis and preliminary results for crop-yield estimates suggest a significant and scalable capacity for a nature-based hydrological adaptation: the extent of inundated areas could be increased stepwise and water retention could locally compensate dry periods due to the buffering effect of inundated meanders.