Kognitív és kísérleti pszichológia: észlelés, cselekvés és magasabbrendű kognitív
folyamatok
Predictions supporting risky decisions could become unreliable when outcome probabilities
temporarily change, making adaptation more challenging. Therefore, this study investigated
whether sensitivity to the temporal structure in outcome probabilities can develop
and remain persistent in a changing decision environment. In a variant of the Balloon
Analogue Risk Task with 90 balloons, outcomes (rewards or balloon bursts) were predictable
in the task’s first and final 30 balloons and unpredictable in the middle 30 balloons.
The temporal regularity underlying the predictable outcomes differed across three
experimental conditions. In the deterministic condition, a repeating three-element
sequence dictated the maximum number of pumps before a balloon burst. In the probabilistic
condition, a single probabilistic regularity ensured that burst probability increased
as a function of pumps. In the hybrid condition, a repeating sequence of three different
probabilistic regularities increased burst probabilities. In every condition, the
regularity was absent in the middle 30 balloons. Participants were not informed about
the presence or absence of the regularity. Sensitivity to both the deterministic and
hybrid regularities emerged and influenced risk taking. Unpredictable outcomes of
the middle phase did not deteriorate this sensitivity. In conclusion, humans can adapt
their risky choices in a changing decision environment by exploiting the statistical
structure that controls how the environment changes.
