Recent studies have shown that the Himalayan region is under the threat of earthquakes
of magnitude nine or larger. These estimates are based on comparisons of the geodetically
inferred moment deficit rate with the seismicity of the region. However, these studies
did not account for the physics of fault slip, specifically the influence of frictional
barriers on earthquake rupture dynamics, which controls the extent and therefore the
magnitude of large earthquakes. Here we combine an improved probabilistic estimate
of moment deficit rate with results from dynamic models of the earthquake cycle to
more fully assess the seismogenic potential of the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). We
propose a straightforward and efficient methodology for incorporating outcomes of
physics-based earthquake cycle models into hazard estimates. We show that, accounting
for uncertainties on the moment deficit rate, seismicity and earthquake physics, the
MHT is prone to rupturing in Mw 8.7 earthquakes every T > 200 years.
