GDP and Net Migration in Some Eastern and South-Eastern Countries of Europe. A Panel Data and Bayesian Approach

Simionescu, Mihaela ✉; Ciuiu, Daniel; Bilan, Yuriy [Bilan, Yuriy (management), szerző]; Strielkowski, Wadim

Angol nyelvű Szakcikk (Folyóiratcikk) Tudományos
Megjelent: MONTENEGRIN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS 1800-5845 1800-6698 12 (2) pp. 161-175 2016
  • Gazdaságtudományi Doktori Minősítő Bizottság: C nemzetközi
Azonosítók
Szakterületek:
  • Közgazdasági és gazdálkodástudományok
This paper analyzes the relationship between the GDP and the net migration using the comparative approach represented by the panel data and Bayesian analysis. The panel data analysis is made for the period 1991-2013 in Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs): Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary. The Bayesian approach is utilized for checking whether Poland and Ukraine have similar expectation of GDP and net migration during 1991-2013. A negative correlation was recorded between net migration and the real GDP rate in the previous period. During the period of 1991-1994 corresponding to transition, each 10 percent increase in the GDP rate caused a 0.6 percent decrease in net migration at the significance level of 5%. A higher increase was registered in the economic depression (1994-2000), while the greater decrease, with 4.58 percentage points for each 10 per cent in the GDP rate, was observed for the period of economic boom. Computing the differences between Ukraine and Poland, we obtained the expectations of -17.7187 and 15.745 with a higher variance of the estimator for Ukraine.
Hivatkozás stílusok: IEEEACMAPAChicagoHarvardCSLMásolásNyomtatás
2024-12-11 08:10