This paper analyzes the relationship between the GDP and the net migration using the
comparative approach represented by the panel data and Bayesian analysis. The panel
data analysis is made for the period 1991-2013 in Central and Eastern European countries
(CEECs): Czech Republic, Slovakia, Ukraine, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, Slovenia
and Hungary. The Bayesian approach is utilized for checking whether Poland and Ukraine
have similar expectation of GDP and net migration during 1991-2013. A negative correlation
was recorded between net migration and the real GDP rate in the previous period. During
the period of 1991-1994 corresponding to transition, each 10 percent increase in the
GDP rate caused a 0.6 percent decrease in net migration at the significance level
of 5%. A higher increase was registered in the economic depression (1994-2000), while
the greater decrease, with 4.58 percentage points for each 10 per cent in the GDP
rate, was observed for the period of economic boom. Computing the differences between
Ukraine and Poland, we obtained the expectations of -17.7187 and 15.745 with a higher
variance of the estimator for Ukraine.
