Potential benefit of the ensemble forecasts in case of heavy convective weather situations

Lázár, D [Lázár, Dóra (Meteorológia), szerző]; Ihász, I

Angol nyelvű Tudományos Szakcikk (Folyóiratcikk)
  • SJR Scopus - Atmospheric Science: Q3
    Nowadays, early warning and alarm for high impact weather situations becomes more and more important. Besides deterministic model forecasts, using ensemble forecasts gets increasing attention, but in case of the convective events, probabilistic forecasts have not been widely used. Due to the fact that convective events are very changeable in space and time, probabilistic approach can have a lot of advantages. Current horizontal resolution of the global ensemble models is around 30 km, so we cannot aim to focus on small scale convective events, but focusing on frontal zones and extended squall lines can be possible. We attempt pioneering steps to develop new methods and tools to support early warning based on ensemble (ENS) forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). We focus on the forecast probabilities of three main components generating convection. © 2016, Hungarian Meteorological Service. All rights reserved.
    Hivatkozás stílusok: IEEEACMAPAChicagoHarvardCSLMásolásNyomtatás
    2021-05-15 18:54