Various methods for forecasting cross-border power flows in the Hungarian transmission system

Bürger, László; Gölöncsér, Péter; Decsi, Tamás [Decsi, Tamás Gábor (Villamos Energetika), szerző] Villamos Energetika Tanszék (BME / VIK); Sebestyén, Géza; Oroszki, Lajos

Angol nyelvű Tudományos Konferenciaközlemény (Egyéb konferenciaközlemény)
    The deregulation of electricity market is a challenge for transmission system operators all over the world. The era of the well predictable electrical environment is slowly going away. Some time ago those rapid and large exchange program fluctuations that characterize today's European interconnected power system were not conceivable. The loop flows that they generate have a severe impact not only on the grid of the countries directly involved in the trading but their neighbours as well. These impacts are undoubtedly the most observable in the variations of cross-border interface flows. Foreseeing the cross-border interface flows may indicate the possibility of congestions and can help prevent dangerous operating situations. The Hungarian Transmission System Operator has been producing day-ahead forecasts with hourly resolution since 2004. From that time up to now three different methods were introduced, each one complementing the other. Historically the first one relies on a PTDF (Power Transfer Distribution Factor) based model, the second one utilizes a purely statistical algorithm, while the third one is an ancillary method to improve the quality of the previous two forecasts. This paper is the detailed description of the aforementioned methods and the experiences obtained during the past three years.
    Hivatkozás stílusok: IEEEACMAPAChicagoHarvardCSLMásolásNyomtatás
    2021-03-05 06:04