The Chernobyl accident and unfortunately the recent accident at the Fukushima 1 Nuclear
Power Plant are the most serious accidents in the history of the nuclear technology
and industry. Both of them have a huge and prolonged impact on environment as well
as human health. Therefore, any technological developments and strategies that could
diminish the consequences of such unfortunate events are undisputedly the most important
issues of research. Numerical simulations of dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere
after an accidental release can provide with a reliable prediction of the path of
the plume. In this study we present a short (one month) and a long (11 years) term
statistical study for the Fukushima 1 Nuclear Power Plant to estimate the most probable
dispersion directions and plume structures of radionuclides on local scale using a
Gaussian dispersion model. We analyzed the differences in plume directions and structures
in case of typical weather/circulation pattern and provided a statistical-climatological
method for a "first-guess" approximation of the dispersion of toxic substances. The
results and the described method can support and used by decision makers in such important
cases like the Fukushima accident. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
